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Thursday, November 26: Jeff Siegel's Best Plays

by Jeff Siegel

November 26, 2020

Fair Grounds Fourth Race – Post Time: 1:31 CT
6 – Ours Forever (6-1)

Short on pedigree but was visually quite impressive breezing a quarter mile in a blistering 21 2/5 seconds over the Timonium bull ring in the preview session of the Fasig-Tipton spring sale and then brought $90,000 through the ring, a rather impressive figure for a Louisiana-bred daughter of Half Ours. The recent local tab hardly jumps off the page but we suspect that this juvenile filly from a highly-capable outfit that boasts strong stats with first-timers is extremely live and well-meant. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s a win play but might actually offer better value in the rolling exotics.

Del Mar Fourth Race – Post Time: 12:30 PT
4 – Applecross (Ire) (7/2)

After breaking her maiden at first asking early in her 2-year-old campaign, this Irish-bred filly has faced nothing but tough and contentious stakes competition while acquitting herself reasonably well, and today she receives much welcomed class relief while dropping into a first-level allowance event. The R. Baltas-trained import makes a pivotal jockey switch to J. Rosario, gets an extra half-furlong to work with, and looks capable of producing the last run with good racing luck and decent early fractions to complement her late kick. At 7/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and strong key in rolling exotic play.

Fair Grounds Sixth Race – Post Time: 2:33 CT
2 – Proxy (4-1)

Was best when beaten when a troubled runner-up (beaten a neck while more than four clear of the rest) in a very promising debut race over a mile in an off-the-turf affair at Monmouth Park last month and seems sure to improve for a barn that hits at a strong 21% with second-time starters. The son of Tapit from the top race mare Panty Raid broke slowly, raced in heavy traffic most of the way, then got clear and closed resolutely but ran out of room in a race that earned a good speed figure. He’s assured a ground-saving trip from the rail, so at 4-1 on the morning line the M. Stidham-trained colt should offer plenty of wagering value.

Churchill Downs 11th race – Post Time: 4:22 ET
6 – Pirate Rick (8-1)

This lightly-raced colt is moving up from a maiden $50,000 sprint to this much tougher first-level allowance affair and must negotiate an extra half-furlong so the task won’t be easy, but we’ll give him a legitimate chance to wire the field and spring an upset. After shipping in from Prairie Meadows the son of Liam’s Map left his previous form far behind with a dominating gate-to-wire score while earning a speed figure that makes him dangerous despite the class hike, and as the projected controlling speed once again the D. Von Hemel-trained sophomore is worth a play at 8-1 on the morning line.

Del Mar Sixth Race – Post Time: 1:30 PT
2 – Never Be Enough (GB)

Returns to a mini-marathon trip after an impressive score in the Kathryn Crosby S. over at a mile over the local lawn last month and because she was a stayer (and hurdler) overseas we suspect the longer distance won’t be an issue if she receives her preferred patient ride. The Northern California-based mare has worked extremely well in the interim to remain right on edge and can score right back in this year’s edition of the Red Carpet H.-G3 if she switches off early and finds cover. She’s a gamble at or near her morning line of 4-1.

Del Mar Seventh Race – Post Time: 2:00 PT
10 – Octopus (3-1)

Has much in his favor in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming seller for older horses and should have every chance to regain his winning form over a main track that has produced both of his career victories. Back at his claim level with a cozy outside draw and a recent bullet workout at Del Mar two weeks ago, the son of Shackleford retains A. Cedillo, who has the option of popping and going or stalking and pouncing. Additionally, the sophomore sprinter has a clear edge in the speed figure department so there’s value at his morning line of 5/2 if you can get it.