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Thursday, December 10: Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

December 10, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Thursday, December 10, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes. For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Always Misbehaving; 7-Cuy

Forecast: Two recent outings from Cuy has been darkened by a pair of off-the-turf races that resulted in back-to-back well-beaten efforts, but with the return to grass the E. Dobles-trained gelding can snap back to life in this soft maiden claiming miler. His prior form over this course and distance charts strongly in this modest affair, so at 9/2 on the morning line he’s worth a close look in the win pool. The logical favorite (6/5 on the morning line) is Always Misbehaving, a huge class dropper from the high-percentage D. Gargan barn with a favorable inside draw and numbers that are better than par for this level. With the always popular two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern following a layoff, the son of Into Mischief should have no excuses. Cuy will be the better price of the two so we’ll put him slightly on top but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 2: Post: 1:04 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Markistan; 5-Beast of Wildwood

Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a bottom-rung ($6,250) claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Beast of Wildwood didn’t fire in a pair of similar events at GPW but she returns to her favorite strip and seems capable of improving enough to handle this task. The G. Zerpa-trained filly is a three-time winner at Gulfstream Park, is more than good enough to win on her best day, retains P. Lopez, and projects to enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip. Makistan, the even money morning line favorite, is a first-off-the-claim play for J. K. Sweezey (average stats with this angel) and, like ‘Wildwood, is far more comfortable over this track than she is at GPW. First or second in six of eight lifetime outings over this surface, the daughter of Khozan switches to L. Saez and is the one to beat, though her lack of tactical speed combined with her rail draw makes a trouble-free trip a bit problematic.

RACE 3: Post: 1:33 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Freeze Turkey; 8-Thorover

Forecast: Freeze Turkey didn’t show a whole lot in his debut vs. tougher at GPW last month but there are several reasons to believe the Strong Mandate gelding will improve considerably in this modest maiden $16,000 main track miler for 2-year-olds. From a barn that hits at a strong 24% with second-timers, stretching out to what should be a more favorable distance, adding blinkers, and retaining J. Bravo, the K. Breen-trained juvenile seems certain to display more early speed after getting off sluggishly in a fairly quick sprint that already has proven productive. We’ll give him slight preference over the 2-1 morning line favorite Thorover, who shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern but is dropping in class for the third straight race after receiving zero play on the tote in either of his first two outings. The son of Overanalyze does has some early zip and may inherit the role as the controlling speed, so on that basis alone he must be considered dangerous.

RACE 4: Post: 2:03 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-The Red Man; 6-Sigiloso; 7-Happy Champ

Forecast: Sigiloso brought $110,000 at the Spring OBS 2-year-old-in-training sale after breezing a furlong in a solid 10 2/5 seconds. By the outstanding regional sire Khozan, this athletic, long-striding colt may not be a quick type but appears to have some quality and finds a reasonable spot to win at first asking in this Florida-bred juvenile sprint that came up fairly light. This barn isn’t great with first-timers but the recent work tab at GPW looks healthy and promising. The Red Man appears to be the best of the known element, but that’s not really saying much. A distant runner-up over this track and distance in September, he nevertheless earned a speed figure that makes him a threat. Happy Champ sprints on dirt for the first time in his third career outing and perhaps this is what he really wants to do. We like the route-to-sprint angle for the son of Run Happy, who might just want to be turned loose and let roll. Let’s put Sigiloso on top but have tickets including all three in rolling exotic play.

RACE 5: Post: 2:36 ET Grade: B
Single: 3-Glorious Gal

Forecast: Glorious Gal couldn’t handle the sloppy track at GPW when third beaten almost 16 lengths last month but with this return to grass the daughter of Shanghai Bobby should be able to bounce back. A prior winner over the local lawn, the J. Orseno-trained filly can handle this assignment with a repeat of her race-before-last that produced a career top speed figure over this course and distance when second while more than four lengths clear of the rest. At 4-1 on the morning line let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 6: Post: 3:06 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Royal Meghan; 4-Miss Peppina; 5-Mandamus

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this allowance optional/claimer for entry-level allowance sprinting fillies and mares, with a slight edge on top to Royal Meghan. After a couple of sloppy track sprints at GPW that failed to produce her best form, the daughter of Uncaptured returns to dry land today and has never been off the board over the local main track. A recent bullet blowout indicates she’s doing well, and with the switch to T. Gaffalione the F. Abreu-trained sophomore projects to enjoy a comfortable stalking trip. Miss Peppina makes her first start since joining the T. Pletcher barn and should improve, although based on her pure form she’ll have to. Freshened since early August and sporting a healthy work tab at Palm Meadows, the daughter of Bayern picks up L. Saez and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play, though her morning line of 8/5 indicates she’s likely to be an underlay. Mandamus is fairly quick and could get brave if she can shake loose early. Her form over the local main track is good and she’s fresh from earning a career top speed figure when nosed out in a restricted $25,000 claimer at GPW in late October. Protected today in a sign of confidence, the daughter of Constitution looked sharp in a bullet five furlong breeze here (1:00 1/5 seconds) last week.

RACE 7: Post: 3:36 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Calentita; 8-War Canoe

Forecast: War Canoe, a multiple stakes-placed daughter of Lemon Drop Kid with earnings of $545,228 and most recently second in the $150,000 Ticonderoga S. at Belmont Park in late October, shows up in a $35,000 claimer today and obviously is for sale. The C. Brown-trained mare has made a very good living vs. New York-bred foes throughout her career but clearly her connections believe she’s on the downward slide after haltering her for $62,500 more than a year ago. Is there value here at 7/5 on the morning line? Probably not, but if she has one good one left she’ll beat this field. On the opposite side of the spectrum is Calentita, listed at 12-1 on the morning line but lightly-raced and improving for high percentage connections. The Irish-bred filly was non-competitive in four starts at California but since joining the S. Joseph, Jr. barn the daughter of Rock of Gibraltar and made excellent progress, winning a pair of races over the local lawn and then most recently earning a career top speed figure when a close third in a starter/optional claimer. She’ll be running on late.

RACE 8: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Moonlite Strike; 2-Kiger

Forecast: Kiger was a visually pleasing two-turn maiden winner at GPW in late October in his second career start and seems prepared to produce another forward move in this entry-level allowance main track miler for 2-year-olds. The son of Verrazano has done some good work at Palm Meadows in the interim and appears to be a decent sort of prospect for the S. Joseph. Jr. barn. His uncoupled barn mate Moonlite Strike also looked pretty good breaking his maiden at GPW (albeit over a sloppy track) and seems likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics from his favorable rail draw. The Liam’s Map colt was favored in both of his starts and clearly is well-regarded. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Kiger on top.

RACE 9: Post: 4:36 ET Grade: B
Single: 11-Osaka Girl

Forecast: Osaka Girl should be quick enough to overcome her outside draw in this mile grass allowance/optional claimer for fillies and mares in her first outing since finishing second to next-out Remington Park stakes winner Confessing in a strong race at Kentucky Downs in mid-September. The daughter of First Samurai shows two prior outings over the local lawn, both very good efforts, and should be capable of firing a big shot while either on the lead or from a pace prompting/stalking position. Let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 10: Post: 5:06 ET Grade: B
Single: 3-Litle Red Fog

Forecast: Little Red Fog seems the logical top pick in the nightcap, a modest restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. The M. Maker-trained filly is winless in 10 starts this year but this is the softest spot she’s ever been in and from where’s she’s drawn the daughter of Munnings projects to enjoy an ideal stalking, ground-saving trip. Comparatively strong in the speed figure department and switching to T. Gaffalione, she’s has little to beat so we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single while requiring close to her morning line of 5/2.