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Wednesday, December 9: Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

December 9, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes. For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Awesome View; 6-Luisana Princess; 9-Lifechangingevent

Forecast: Lifechangingmoment exits a live maiden claiming off-the-turf sprint at this level at GPW and seems certain to improve on a surface she’s bred for while making her second career start for a barn that has very strong stats (21%, powerful ROI) with this angle. The daughter of Soldat is plenty quick, has two nice breezes since raced and offers value at 4-1 on the morning line. Rolling exotic player should also consider – at least as savers – Awesome View and Luisana Princess. The former has form over this course and distance that charts well with this group, while the latter drops to her lowest level ever and should be doing her best work from the quarter pole to the wire.

RACE 2: Post: 1:04 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Fast Fraction; 5-Too Much War

Forecast: Fast Fraction, in the frame in all four of her outings over the local main track, just defeated a slightly lesser field at GPW while competing for this bottom-rung price tag ($6,250) may deserve a very slight edge on top despite the restricted condition raise from nw-2 to nw-3. The daughter of Algorithms has good tactical speed that projects to produce a trouble-free, pace-stalking trip. Too Much War has never raced on dirt – all 12 of her prior outings have come on grass – but on pedigree there’s no reason she won’t handle the main track. The daughter of He’s Had Enough is a fit on figures and should be prominent throughout. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post: 1:33 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-Charliecando; 6-Geoscience

Forecast: Geoscience is relatively unexposed and therefore rates top billing in this lethargic maiden-claiming grass sprint for older horses. He’s only had three starts and has been forced to the sidelines after each start, so the son of Gemologist returns off a layoff yet again while showing up for a tag for the first time. He’s quick from the gates, is re-equipped with blinkers, hails from a high-percentage outfit, will be very tough to catch if he shows up with his best stuff. Charliecando already has had 13 chances, so he’s clearly not one to trust, but on his best form he charts as a contender. The Shanghai Bobby gelding has hit the board in five of six career outings on grass and projects to draft into a good second flight position. He can be included on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.

RACE 4: Post: 2:03 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Orbs Baby Girl; 3-High Speed Stef

Forecast: Orbs Baby Girl has a couple of runs under her belt, a fourth place finish behind subsequent Maryland Million Lassie Stakes winner Miss Nondescript and then a distant third behind Malathaat, who came back to win both the Tempted S-G3. and the Demoiselle S.-G2 and currently ranks among the best juvenile fillies in training. ‘Girl returns off a two-month freshening for a capable outfit and seems well-spotted to graduate in what is a considerably easier group that what she’s seen so far. With L. Saez aboard and at 9/2 on the morning line she’s worth a play. You also have to include the fast-working first-timer High Speed Stef somewhere on your ticket. A $140,000 OBS March sale purchase, the daughter of Liam’s Map shows a couple of recent bullet gate drills to indicate she’s fit and ready, though it’s never easy to win first time out at this extended sprint distance of seven furlongs.

RACE 5: Post: 2:36 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-All Inclusive; 3-Getthe Muny Bernie

Forecast: Getthe Muny Bernie shows up in a seller for the first time after a poor run over a sloppy track at GPW in late October. Against this group the son of Munnings appears to have found his friends. He’ll add blinkers for the first time (the S. Joseph, Jr. barn has superior stats with this angle), and with excellent form in three prior starts over this course and distance the lightly-raced 4-year-old gelding should be hard to beat at 5/2 on the morning line. All Inclusive is a Woodbine invader with figures that fit and like our top pick will be making his first career start on grass. He’s the quicker of the two main contenders, so if he can shake loose early without pressure the Canadian-bred gelding may be hard to catch. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Getthe Muny Bernie a slight edge on top.

RACE 6: Post: 3:06 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Slick Star; 6-Deckology; 10-Money Come

Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) $6,250 claiming sprint looks fairly wide open and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Deckology returns to his winning level and has recent speed figures vs. tougher foes that are good enough to beat this field. Both of his career wins have been earned over the local main track, and with the addition of I. Ortiz, Jr. the son of Point of Entry appears extremely well-meant at 7/2 on the morning line. Slick Star, in the money in his last six and dropping to his lowest level ever, always seems vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong but against this group could easily see out the trip. The Bellamy Road gelding projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Money Come is just 2-for-28 with 12 seconds and thirds and is another one that has found it difficult to seal the deal. Perhaps the switch to L. Saez will make a difference.

RACE 7: Post: 3:36 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-National Honor; 12-Rocket Joe Copper

Forecast: We’re not crazy about the extreme outside draw that Rocket Joe Copper will have to deal with in this one mile grass affair for older $16,000 claimers but this class drop to his lowest level ever seems realistic, so if the R. Spatz-trained gelding can work out a decent trip under I. Ortiz, Jr. he’ll be the one to beat. The versatile son of Rock the Rocket can be dangerous on the front end or when held up early and allowed to run late and both of his prior races over the local lawn were solid. National Honor, entered this past Sunday but opting for this race, was a winner at Parx in his most recent outing in September and has two prior victories over the local turf course. He’s a deep closer that needs pace up front and good racing luck to have his best chance. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with extra tickets keying Rocket Joe Copper on top.

RACE 8: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Geonosis; 2-Glory of Florida; 5-Answer In

Forecast: Geonosis is a genuine and consistent gelding fresh from a nice GPW victory last month over a wet fast track around two turns in a starter event and is properly spotted in this one-turn mile for allowance/optional $25,000 claimers. A three-time winner over the local main track and especially effective at this trip, the son of Dialed In employs a second-flight, stalking style, has speed figures that fit, shows a bullet three furlong breeze (35 3/5) six days ago and is enticingly-priced at 8-1 on the morning line. Glory of Florida is well-placed for a big effort as well and also appears attractive at 5-1 on the morning line. All four of his career victories have been accomplished at Gulfstream Park and the speed figures he earned in each of the three races since joining the high-percentage C. David barn make him a serious contender at this level. Answer In, a dangerous Churchill Downs invader from the B. Cox barn, was a highly-regarded 3-year-old earlier this year (he was third as the favorite in the Southwest S.-G3) and ran better than the line will show when fourth in his recent comeback. This one-turn mile trip appears perfect for his style, so at 5/2 on the morning line he’s certain to get plenty of play and deservedly so.

RACE 9: Post: 4:36 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Dundalk; 4-Soglio

Forecast: Soglio, first off the claim for S. Klesaris, is waiver protected while launching a comeback following a 10-month vacation and in fact won off an extended layoff when last seen in February of this year. The son of Scat Daddy returns with I. Ortiz, Jr. while showing a bullet half mile grass workout (:47 3/5 around dogs, fastest of 45) at Palm Meadows late last month, so we’ll assume the ex-classer is fit and ready. Dundalk is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving, front-running trip from his favorable inside draw and if not pressured up front could take his foes a very long way. The Laurel invader will be making his third start off a long layoff and is shortening to a flat mile, his preferred trip.

RACE 10: Post: 5:06 ET Grade: B
Use: 9-A Beautiful Day; 10-Aerodynamic

Forecast: The finale is a mid-level claiming miler for fillies and mares. We’ll try to get by using just two. A Beautiful Day has won three of her last four and seems properly spotted for another big effort. The daughter of Prospective is moving up from the restricted (nw-3) $12,500 level to this open $16,000 affair, but her numbers continue to rise and another forward move is possible, if not likely. P. Lopez stays aboard and knows her well. Aerodynamic, freshened since late September, is a three-time winner over the local lawn and is better suited against this group than the allowance optional claimers that were out of her range last time out. She has a good stalking style and catches what projects to be a favorable pace scenario.