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Friday, December 11: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

December 11, 2020

Tonight, Cal Expo has 11 races scheduled with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 8. The sequence has a 16% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

6-Allmyx'sliventexas (2-1)-This is a horse for this course as 7-year old has won 31 of 67 starts at CalX. Didn't do much at Haw but starts this meet with 2 straight pictures. Offers no value but can stay good for a while in Cali.
8-Ponda's Prospect (6-1)-If the pace is hot Plano should be rolling down the lane. Paced the back half in .56 in last and now makes 3rd start at CalX. Shorter field can improve chances.

Race 9

1-Fox Valley B Gump (5-1)-Gump tries and can take a picture versus this crew if gets a good trip. Doesnt seem to like to cut the mile so Cutting needs to stay close and come off a helmet.
4-Lukes Cowboy (6-1)-Can compete at this class, was Kennedy's choice and should stay close with this post draw. Looks like a trip a out candidate and could be sitting on a big try at a square price.
7-Stanhope (5-1)-Beat the $6k claimers with a nice brush in 2nd CalX start. HoP invader had never raced here before last 2 starts and best to respect for an encore.
10-Bet Together (4-1)-Came 2nd to $7k claimers in 1st start at CalX and finished the same last week versus $6k claimers. Has some gate speed to get a decent seat, Roland takes the lines and will need to provide a smooth trip.

Race 10

1-A And C Artist (5-1)-Hasn't raced since 9/9 but did qualify with a 56.2 back half here on 12/5. Using off that tune-up against a beatable field.
2-Native's Best Bet (9/5)-Might be overbet off a conservative start to finish 2nd. Did face better at Haw but since mid-August has been in poor form. This could be a spot to wake-up but need to use others as well.
10-Winonefordoug (8-1)-Comes off a decent try and was used a couple of times last week. That was only the 2nd start since 7/19. Post will help the price and has the gate speed for Roland to stay close, worth a swing versus this group.

Race 11

5-West Central Beach (6-1)-Kept coming in last and the trip wasn't great. Pace could be lively and can pass a few down the lane. Looks like a player if makes good use of this post draw.
9-Custards Dungeon (8-1)-Probably doesn't have much choice but to leave as the program chalk #10 should be doing the same. Should be there at the wire if lands in a good spot off the gate.
10-Villa For Rent (5/2)-Winner of last 5, including 3 at Aces and the last 2 coming at CalX. Hard to leave out after drawing off by over 4 lengths last week at this class. The issue is the start, isn't quick off the gate and should be bet hard.

My Ticket

Race 8) 6,8

Race 9) 1,4,7,10

Race 10) 1,2,10

Race 11) 5,9,10

Total Ticket Cost) $14.40 for $0.20

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