Log In

Sunday, December 13: Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

December 13, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes. For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Cool Hand Coop; 7-No Nay Maybe; 13-No Bang No Boom

Forecast: No Bang No Boom drew in from the also-eligible list, and while his extreme outside draw may present a problem he's the best of this lot based strictly on speed figures and therefore deserves top billing. The W. Ward-trained gelding, freshened since Saratoga, drops to his lowest level ever, picks up P. Lopez, and shows a good series of recent workouts that should have him set for a top effort. No Nay Maybe arrives from Monmouth Park after a runaway sloppy track score in August but the son of No Nay Never can handle turf as well and is properly spotted in this $20,000 grass dash that carries a non-winners of three restriction. A prior winner over the local lawn, the J. Delgado-trained gelding should have a strong pace presence throughout. Cool Hand Coop appears to be the most dangerous of the closing contingent. The Northern Afleet gelding has numbers that fit and picks up I. Ortiz, Jr., however, his record over the Gulfstream Park grass course (six starts with only two third place finishes) doesn’t really inspire confidence.

RACE 2: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Samurai Fighter; 7-I’m a Coco Pebbles

Forecast: I’m a Coco Pebbles has numbers that are gradually rising and with another forward move should be able to earn her diploma in this soft maiden $16,000 extended sprint for juvenile fillies. The addition of blinkers is a plus, and in a race lacking zip we’re anticipating that P. Lopez will have this filly on or near the lead from the get-go. Samurai Fighter has been chasing tougher, shows the route-to-sprint angle, and drops in class to where her speed figures say she’s a fit. The M. Casse-trained filly will be doing her best work from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to I’m a Coco Pebbles.

RACE 3: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Dropped Anchor; 4-Converter

Forecast: Dropped Anchor flashed speed before weakening and winding up third (beaten almost five lengths) when debuting in a maiden $50,000 dash over a sloppy track at GPW last month and today shows up for half that amount while hoping to find dry land. Based on the good quickness he displayed in her first race, the A. Sano-trained son of Anchor Down should be too quick for this field. Converter also is dropping and dangerous. The son of Currency Swap earned a number two races back that puts him right there, and with the major jockey switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. he’s worth including on your ticket at 5-1 on the morning line.

RACE 4: Post: 1:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Missing Link; 3-Can’t Buy Me Love

Forecast: Missing Link continued her improving pattern with an authoritative maiden $40,000 win over this course and distance in September and returns protected in this starter optional claimer. The daughter of Kantharos apparently has found her niche as a turf sprinter and with a recent healthy work pattern to have her on edge she could spring a surprise at 6-1 on the morning line. Can’t Buy Me Love was non-competitive in a pair of stakes races after graduating at first asking over the local lawn last summer. She’s eligible for this race after being entered for the $25,000 tag and certainly rates a big look on pure numbers at this level. In a deep and contentious affair, rolling exotic play may choose to spread; we’ll try to survive and advance using just the two listed above with preference on top to Missing Link.

RACE 5: Post: 2:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-R Adios Jersey; 5-Dispense; 6-Fior Di Latte; 7-Elliereesaston

Forecast: Maiden $35,000 claiming juvenile fillies sprint six furlongs in an anything-can-happen affair that necessitates a spread in rolling exotic play. Fior Di Latte showed a bit of ability when hitting the front but weakening late to wind up second in her debut against slightly lesser foes at GPW last month and the daughter of Exaggerator has every right to produce a forward move with that bit of experience behind her. She switches to L. Saez and may be better than her morning line of 8-1 gives her credit for. R Adios Jersey is a sneaky first-timer from the G. Baxter barn (33% with a strong ROI with debut runners). The work tab indicates ability, so in a soft affair this daughter of Adios Charlie is a “must use.” Elliereeseaston is another debut runner with credentials to run well. A bullet recent gate drill (:47.4bg, fastest of 83 for the distance) certainly catches the eye for good trainer S. Joseph, Jr., so you have to include her. Dispense closed a gap after a slow start to finish a willing second in here only outing in a maiden $25,000 grass sprint at Woodbine last month. She’s another with a right to improve in her second career start and her first on dirt.

RACE 6: Post: 2:38 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Borkan; 7-Chess’s Dream

Forecast: Chess’s Dream seems the logical top pick in this state-bred two-turn maiden grass event for 2-year-olds based on two strong runner-up efforts over the local lawn prior to being well-beaten in an off-the-grass stakes on a sloppy track in late September. Freshened for M. Maker, training well, removing blinkers and returning to the maiden ranks, the son of Jess’s Dream has much in his favor. First-timer Borkan is a bit intriguing and may be worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up. The son of Speightstown doesn’t show anything flashy on his work tab but hails from the C. Clement barn, which boasts superior stats with debut runners (28%, powerful ROI). With T. Gaffalione taking the call, this colt seems likely to take some money on the tote.

RACE 7: Post: 3:08 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Bahamian Beat; 8-Chill Haze; 9-Valiant Appeal

Forecast: Here’s a challenging affair for restricted (nw-2) $10,000 claimers that offers a couple of decent price chances. Valiant Angel is drawn comfortably outside, returns to dirt and one turn, and has sprint numbers that make him far more competitive than his morning line of 20-1 suggests. Low-percentage connections certainly should keep the price up. Chill Haze finally broke his maiden in his 13th career start but did so over a wet fast track, so his highly-rated score probably shouldn’t be taken at face value. However, the son of Justin Phillip projects as the controlling speed, and if he can shake loose again without pressure he’ll most likely outrun his morning line of 8-1. Bahamian Beat should be part of the pace and is another with back speed figures that make him a strong threat in a soft field. He does have a prior win over the local main track, though it was accomplished on a sloppy surface.

RACE 8: Post: 3:38 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sun Glass; 8-Miss Deplorable; 9-Roman d’Oro

Forecast: Miss Deplorable has been away since February and there are only two workouts listed at a local training center in the mare’s past performance chart, but this low profile barn has good stats with comebackers and if this daughter of Big Drama returns as well as she left she should be able to out class this second-level allowance field of grass sprinting fillies and mares. At 6-1 she may be worth a small gamble in the win pool but she’s just one of three that we’ll be using in rolling exotic play. Sun Glass is a progressive daughter of Hard Spun seeking her third straight win, her most recent success accomplished sprinting on grass at Woodbine in late October. She’s a fit on speed figures with plenty of room for further improvement and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip. Roman d’Oro has the route-top-sprint angle and also is dropping out of stakes competition for this softer assignment. She’ll be a late threat and at 10-1 on the morning line is worth including on your ticket.

RACE 9: Post: 4:09 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Frosted Grace; 6-With Verve

Forecast: Frosted Grace isn’t one to trust (2-for-20 with 13 seconds and thirds) and his lack of a true winning punch has been on display in his last three starts, all runner-up efforts. On the positive side are his recent speed figures, which are comparatively strong, and a prior win over the local main track. We’ll use him along with the morning line favorite (2-1). With Verve, arguably the most dangerous of the closing types. The Kantharos gelding was a solid third in the Sunshine Million Sprint Preview over a sloppy track at GPW last month and is a three-time winner over the local main oval, including the Hutcheson S. here last winter. With the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr., the L. Bates-trained sophomore is strictly the one to beat.

RACE 10: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Max K. O,; 4-Sniper Kitten; 5-Morocco

Forecast: This messy turf event for $50,000 older claimers has several possibilities, so we suggest you spread as deeply as you can afford to. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Morocco does his best work from off the pace, so he’ll need fractions to run at and room to rally through the lane. If things break his way, the M. Maker-trained gelding, a two-time winner over the Gulfstream Park turf course, may be able to tag the speed under I. Ortiz, Jr. Max K. O. gets a much better draw today (from the far outside to the rail) and returns to the claiming ranks so it’s conceivable the E. Plesa, Jr.-trained colt will return to top form. Always dangerous as the controlling speed, he’ll no doubt try to secure that type of trip today, though there are other speed types in the field that will make him work for it. Sniper Kitten looked pretty good winning at Indiana Downs last month when facing softer foes and may have another forward move in him. He’s got back numbers that make him dangerous and a stalking style that should ensure a comfortable trip.

Race 11: Post Time: 5:11 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Reinagol; 2-Viva La Red; 3-Phantom Vision

Forecast: Let’s go with the inside three runners in today’s nightcap, a five furlong turf dash for 2-year-old fillies. Phantom Vision, a reasonable second in her debut last month for M. Maker and is likely to produce a forward move with that effort behind her. Though beaten more than three lengths, the daughter of Declaration of War was five lengths clear of the rest and a recent 47 flat breezing workout (second fastest of 92) tells us she’s headed in the right direction. Viva La Red makes her debut for a barn that has solid stats with first time starters and shows a string of bullet drills at Palm Beach Downs that jumps off the page. The daughter of Texas Red is listed at 5-1 on the morning line for trainer P. Biancone and is a “must use” at that price. Reinagol overcame a sluggish start from the rail to finish with interest when an okay second in a moderate affair in her debut on grass at GPW in early November. The daughter of Shanghai Bobby can improve if she leaves cleanly.