Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Thursday, December 17, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes. For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Pretty Rachel; 4-Peachy Queen

Forecast: Pretty Rachel gets back on dry land after a couple of sloppy track runs at GPW and should appreciate the better footing based on her two previous fast track outings that produced solid runner-up performances. If she leaves cleanly from the rail, the daughter of Dominus should be capable of earning her diploma in this maiden $25,000 sprint for juvenile fillies. That said, Peachy Queen is the likely choice and one to beat. She shows the always-dangerous maiden-to-maiden-claiming class drop, hails from the red-hot D. Gargan barn, and has on her resume a third place finish last summer at Saratoga that would be good enough to beat this field if repeated.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:04 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Gasparilla Blast; 5-Words of Devine

Forecast: Word of Devine has hit the board in each of her last four starts and is a prior winner over the local main track. Freshened since early October, she’s run well at this level in the past and projects to enjoy a good pace-stalking trip. Gasparilla Blast crushed a softer (nw-2) $12,500 filed at GPW in mid-October after a nice maiden-claiming win in her previous start over a sloppy surface at Gulfstream Park. With continued improvement against this tougher band, the D. Fawkes-trained filly will be right there. These are the two we'll be using in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:33 ET Grade: X
Use: 5-Shoug; 7-Princess Coro

Forecast: This maiden claiming $25,000 grass sprint for older fillies and mares appears to boil down to the two morning line favorites, with Princess Coro getting top billing following three successive runner-up efforts vs. similar on dirt. Her two unplaced runs on grass came against straight maiden foes, so we won’t be too critical, and based on pure speed figures the J. Avila-trained filly should have every chance to graduate. Shoug displayed some promise when finishing a good third in straight maiden company last January, but then disappeared. She returns for a tag – not a sign of confidence – but the R. Nicks barn has strong stats with layoff runners so we’ll assume the daughter of Khozan is live and well-meant.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:03 ET Grade: X
Use: 2-Patty H; 6-Exact

Forecast: Exact surfaces in a claimer after three starts but this is realistic class drop after she finished a distant third as a short priced favorite in her last pair. The daughter of Competitive Edge has speed figures that are dropping with each outing but against this maiden $50,000 field from a cozy outside draw the T. Pletcher-trained juvenile appears to have found her friends. Patty H. is another class dropper trying to find her proper level. She’s finished in the frame in three of five outings, and while she certainly must be considered a major player she’s not quite as fast on numbers as our top pick. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:36 ET Grade: B-
Use: 6-Ghostlyprince; 8-Golovkin; 9-Kathern’s Joy

Forecast: Kathern’s Joy, haltered out of his debut for $25,000 in an off-the-turf sprint at GWP, moves up a level for new trainer J. Lander, removes blinkers, retains P. Lopez, and gets his chance on the lawn in the maiden $35,000 affair for juveniles. The outside post at this seven and one-half furlong trip is a concern, but if the son of Creative Cause can work out a decent trip he’ll be dangerous at 4-1 on the morning line. Ghostlyprince is improving with racing and earned a speed figure that is par for this level when he missed by a neck in a similar affair at GPW last month. Golovkin is a first-time gelding and on that angle alone must be considered in rolling exotic play. This also will be his first start in a claimer and on pure numbers he’s a strong fit, though at 2-1 on the morning line he won’t be offering much value.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Papa’s Little Girl; 5-Bimini; 6-Princess Betty

Forecast: Princess Betty remains protected in this Florida-bred starter optional claiming miler for fillies and mares, returns to the main track (her preferred surface) and picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. The daughter of Khozan shows a bullet Palm Meadows half mile breeze (:47 flat, fastest of 30) last week and appears on edge for a career top effort. She’s clearly the top pick, but for rolling exotic purposes you may want to also consider, at least as back-ups, the two P. Walder entrants, Papa’s Little Girl and Bimini. The former can be the controlling speed from the rail if she wants to be under P. Lopez and won over this track and distance three races back in gate-to-wire style, while the latter adds blinkers for the first time, gets back on a fast surface and is a three-time winner over the Gulfstream Park main track.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:37 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Arham; 3-Egyptologist

Forecast: We’re going to try to beat Catch on Emotional in this maiden sprint for older horses, even though the gelding has speed figures that are better than par for this level. Yes, he can win, but the son of Uncaptured, second in his last four starts but a beaten choice in three of those races, simply can’t be trusted. Instead, we’ll double the race using two hot-shot first-timers and hope that at least one runs to his works. Arham, from the T. Pletcher barn, has looked very good in a.m. drills at Palm Beach Downs and is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite. The son of Union Rags has outworked everything that has been led up to him; however he acts like a colt that may be best suited for more distance. Egyptologist, another bred to run long but training like he has some speed, hails from the P. Biancone barn (very solid with first-timers) and appears cranked up and ready to go.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:08 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Pagliacci; 5-Bad Beat Brian

Forecast: Pagliacci, freshened since late September, returns to the claiming ranks (but still above his claim level) and seems primed for a major effort following a bullet grass drill around dogs (4f, :48.4b, fastest of 32) at Palm Meadows earlier this month. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the veteran gelding likes to settle and blast home, so with a clean trip and fractions to run at the son of Pioneerof the Nile may be able to tag the speed. Bad Beat Brian returns to his claim level for M. Maker, and while he’s been primarily a middle distance performer throughout his career his only prior grass sprint (at Saratoga) produced a career top speed figure. Under these conditions, we view him as a major threat.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Prince of Arabia; 5-Yamato; 7-Morning Stride

Forecast: Here’s an interesting 12-furlong grass marathon for starter’s allowance ($12,500) company that has a number of legitimate possibilities. Morning Stride remains eligible for this type of race, having run for this tag last summer, but the son of Morning Line has improved considerably since then and actually won over this course and distance in emphatic fashion during the summer meeting. Overmatched in the Sycamore S.-G3 at Keeneland in his most recent outing, he’s back to reality today while being reunited with “win rider” H. Berrios. The lightly-raced Yamato is quite intriguing in his first start past a middle distance. The son of Artie Schiller may be the controlling speed, though Starship Aramis may have the same game plan, but at worst he’ll draft into a stalking position and then have every chance in a galloper’s race that should suit him well. Prince of Arabia has won at this distance in the past and was a troubled third behind Morning Stride in a stakes race here last August. He’s always preferred to run second or third than win, but you can throw him in somewhere as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Superhighway; 2-Purecrazidude; 11-Saint Larned

Forecast: The finale is a messy bottom-rung main track miler for older horses. At 6-1 on the morning line, Saint Larned may be as good as any. Ensured a trouble-free trio from his cozy outside draw but hailing from a low percentage outfit, the 4-year-old gelding drops to his lowest level ever and returns to dirt, his preferred surface. Both of his career victories were accomplished over the Gulfstream Park main track and he shows better than par speed figures for this level, so at the price we’ll put him on top. Superhighway is ideally suited for this track and distance (first or second in four of five starts under these conditions) and if he can avoid trouble from his rail draw the Quality Road gelding will be the one to beat. Purecrazidude is another with preference to the one-turn mile trip (he’s two-for-three) and should greatly appreciate this drop to the bottom level. At 10-1 on the morning line, he’s worth including on your ticket.