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Sunday, January 10: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

January 10, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click here to view today’s Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Golden: 4-Quick and Dirty; 6-Ivy League

Forecast: Golden rallied into slow fractions in a decent debut effort when a willing third vs. similar at Del Mar last month and has every right to produce a forward move with that bit of experience behind her. Her R. Mandella-trained stable mate,Ivy League, finished a nose behind her in that same race and removes blinkers, so improvement is possible as well, though with already four career outings she may have a bit less upside than Golden. We’ll also toss in Quick and Dirty was a solid runner-up in an expensive maiden claimer in her only start and has worked well since for a barn that has superior stats with second-time starters. Truthfully, these three are tough to separate but we suspect the race winner is among them.

RACE 2: Post: 1:04 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Miss Fia; 2-Jungle Juice; 4-Gidgetta

Forecast: Three of the five starters in this first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares have legitimate credentials to win, so we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Gidgetta returns to dirt and broke her maiden over this track almost a year ago with a good number, and while she’s been sparingly raced since then the daughter of Fast Anna has winning connections and a solid series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to have her primed to produce a forward move. In a race without much speed, she projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Jungle Juice is strong in the speed figure department based on two excellent races in Kentucky last fall and if she repeats either one today, she certainly can win. The veteran mare has 32 races on her resume but just two on dirt, both victories. Miss Fia shows rising numbers and is fresh from a clever score in a starter’s allowance sprint at Los Alamitos last month. With another forward move in just her seventh career start the daughter of Maclean’s Music will be right there.

RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Lady Mystify; 3-Honor America

Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-old fillies that came up a bit light. Honor America set the pace before weakening late in her debut at Los Alamitos last month but has returned to work quite well for the high percentage S. Ruis barn and seems certain to produce a significant forward move with that effort behind her. Hot-riding J. J. Hernandez stays aboard. Lady Mystify, a good runner-up in the same race Honor American exits, also has a right to step forward while switching to F. Prat. The P. Eurton barn has good stats with the second-time starter angle, and with a solid recent five furlong workout over this track since raced the daughter of Bernardini is strictly the one to beat.

RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-N. K. Rocket Man; 7-Full Draw

Forecast: N. K. Rocket Man seems most comfortable as a late-running sprinter and with a legitimate drop from straight maiden to this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 level the son of Unusual Heat appears well-spotted to graduate. At this seven furlong trip, the D. Pederson-trained 5-year-old will be able to settle early and then pick up steam whenever the pace flow dictates. Full Draw ran well when nosed out at this level during the fall meeting, and if he can run back to that race today the Union Rags gelding should every chance. His two outings since that good race were below par but there were excuses for both. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to N. K. Rocket Man.

RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Aqua Seaform Shame; 5-Gypsy Blu; 8-Heathers Grey

Forecast: Aqua Seaform Shame, rested since October and training at San Luis Rey Downs like she’s fit and ready, exits a pair of tougher stakes races and looks capable of regaining her winning form in this second-level allowance turf dash that should suit her to a “T.” Most effective around one turn, she projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip, and with her best effort she should be along in time while offering value at or near her morning line of 3-1. Gypsy Blu and Heathers Grey probably are worth including on your ticket for protection. The former, in her first start since the fall, picks up F. Prat and is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course while the latter has been routing most of her career but could be dangerous on the turn back in trip over a turf course that has produced two of her wins.

RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Captain Scotty; 6-Italiano

Forecast: Ex-classer Captain Scottylooks pretty solid in this $40,000 sprint for older horses, though at 8/5 on the morning line he’s not likely to offer much wagering value. The P. Miller-trained gelding seeks his third straight score and once again clearly projects as the controlling speed, so if he has at least one good one left the son of Quality Road should be hard to catch. Italiano picks up bug girl J. Pyfer and as such will be getting nine pounds from the favorite, so we’ll include him as well. A two-time winner over the local main track, the veteran son of Twirling Candy should find himself in a good stalking spot and then have his chance if ‘Scotty gets a little late.

RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Nice Ice; 3-Ellie Arroway;5-Hurley

Forecast: Let’s go for a price in this wide-open $40,000 claiming turf miler for older fillies and mares. Hurley, a first off the claim play for R. Hess, Jr., is capable of winning a race at this level if she can avoid trouble. She’s often victimized by bad trips – most of the time due to self-caused trouble – but with a good pace to chase and clear sailing through the lane the veteran daughter of Mucho Macho Man can pose a serious threat in the final furlong. A bullet recent workout (47 3/5 seconds, fastest of 14 on the training track) gives strong indication that she’s spot on, so at or near her morning line of 10-1 she’s worth a bit of a gamble. Ellie Arroway, a two-time winner over this course and distance, logically is the one to beat. Away since late October but with a healthy, steady work pattern in recent weeks to have her on edge, the daughter of Street Boss projects to inherit a comfortable pace-stalking trip. Nice Ice likely will try gate-to-wire tactics from the rail and has back numbers that make her dangerous. She won over this course and distance at this level in late October and is another sporting a steady work tab that should have her ready to roll off the bench.

RACE 8: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Qahira; 4-Acting Out

Forecast: Acting Out has really gotten good of late and gets tested for class while taking on stakes competition for the first time in this year’s renewal of the Kalookan Queen. With rising numbers and the versatility to handle any surface or pace scenario, the daughter of Blame projects to be within range to the head of the lane and then have her chance to seal the deal, just as she did in her last pair. A recent bullet workout at Los Alamitos (47 seconds, fastest of 30) gives indication that she has plenty more to give. Qahira, thoroughly genuine and consistent and with numbers that are good enough to win, is the one Acting Out has to worry about the most. Freshened since September, the daughter of Cairo Prince switches to J. Rosario and will have a strong pace presence every step of the way. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Acting Out a very slight edge on top.

RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Inner Beauty; 6-Plum Sexy; 8-Nimbostratus; 11-Miss Dracarys

Forecast: The finale is a messy grass sprint for entry-level allowance sophomore fillies. We’ll try to get by using four in rolling exotic play, but nothing would surprise us. Plum Sexy is back sprinting where she belongs and a repeat of her sharp maiden score over the local lawn during the fall meeting makes her a major player at 8-1 on the morning line. Miss Dracarys won sprinting on grass in her debut in New York with a huge speed figure, though we’re not sure the number is entirely accurate. She’ll be heard from late if she can negotiate a decent trip from her extreme outside post position. Nimbostratus and Inner Beauty both are returning to a sprint and both should improve considerably at this shorter trip. The former gets Lasix and F. Prat while the latter was fourth in a Group-2 turf six furlong affair at The Curragh in Ireland last year in a race that looks stronger on paper than this one.