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Saturday, January 23: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

January 23, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Cruel Intention; 8-Chasin Munny; 10-Tripoli

Forecast: Cruel Intention has trained well enough to be fit and ready in his first start since August at Del Mar, where he finished a willing third at this level in his grass debut. The son of Smiling Tiger returns under similar conditions today for B. Baffert, whose stats with layoff runners (28% with a strong flat-bet profit) is superb. He’s the one to beat in a field with at least a couple of other strong contenders that are worth including in rolling exotic play. Tripoli, a prior winner over the local lawn and a strong closing third here last month, has gradually rising speed figures, and with some help up front should be heard from late. Chasin Munny, away since the fall of 2019, has been blistering the main track in the a.m. while acting like he’s lost none of his old zip. With winning form over this turf course during his two-year-old season the son of Munnings may offer good value at 8-1 on the morning line.

RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Fenway; 2-The Great One

Forecast: The Great One, nailed right on the line when second in the Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 last month, returns to the maiden ranks for what was expected to be easy pickings and will be a short price to earn his diploma, although the first-timer Fenway can run and could make a race for it. A son of the successful young stallion Nyquist, The Great One acts like he may be most comfortable on the lead, though in a recent workout he relaxed nicely behind a stable mate and blew out by when given his cue, so it’ll be interesting to see what strategy is employed. Now a three year old, he’s eligible to race on Lasix for the first time. Fenway has done some very good work in the morning for B. Baffert and appears to have plenty of zip. If he breaks well – and that’s always a concern with a debut runner - he may find himself on the lead. Preference on top goes to The Great One but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Honos Man; 3-C Falls; 9-Justin’s Quest

Forecast: C Falls won a (nw-2) starter’s race in gate-to-wire fashion last month with a career top speed figure and projects to enjoy a similar front-running trip while moving up a notch to a nw-3 starter’s affair and stretching out to nine furlongs. The lightly-raced Shackleford gelding has just eight career starts under his belt, so the S. Ruis-trained 5-year-old seems likely to continue his improving pattern. Honos Man won a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 grass affair earlier this meeting over this course and distance with a decent number and should enjoy a second flight, ground-saving trip from his good inside draw. Justin’s Quest is a fit on numbers, training well, and may have found a home on grass. He projects to settle outside into a stalking position and then have his chance from the quarter pole home.

RACE 4: Post: 2:14 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-My Princess Ellie; 2-Ruthies Racer

Forecast: My Princess Ellie has steadily improving form, and after being freshened since November the P. Miller-trained filly seems ready to produce another forward move while projected to enjoy a good ground-saving trip while on or near the lead throughout. She sports a steady, healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs and clearly is the one to beat. The “other” Miller entrant in the field, Ruthies Racer, adds Lasix, stretches out for the first time and has numbers that fit, so we’ll use her as well.

RACE 5: Post: 2:59 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Luxury Liner; 7-Respectfully

Forecast: The fifth race is a $25,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies. Luxury Liner seeks her third straight win but is dropping a notch on the class ladder, not exactly a sign of confidence, but based strictly on speed figures this is where the daughter of Grazen belongs. She has a good stalking style and has had four steady drills since her mid-December victory at Los Alamitos to keep her on edge. Respectfully crushed a maiden $30,000 field at Los Alamitos last month by seven widening lengths and is realistically spotted right back. On numbers, she’s actually a bit faster than ‘Liner and therefore is likely to leave at a slightly shorter price. They’re hard to separate, so we’ll include both in rolling exotic play.

RACE 6: Post: 3:28 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Kiwi’s Dream

Forecast: Kiwi’s Dream exits a series of five stakes races and today drops into a much easier starter’s allowance affair in his first start since late summer. His work tab at Golden Gate Fields is healthy and strong and the veteran gelding, a devoted front-runner, projects to be the controlling speed without even having to be sent. First or second in 10 of 16 career starts, he’s always been dependable in the proper spot and he certainly has landed in one today. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B+
Use: 6-Ax Man; 8-Kneedeepinsnow

Forecast: Ax Man, away since July but working like he’s fit and ready, returns to his favorite track in this year’s edition of the Palos Verdes S.-G3 and should be able to out-class this group. The B. Baffert-trained gelding, primarily a distance runner but a perfect one-for-one over this exact six furlong distance, has won off a layoff in the past and should find himself in an ideal second flight, stalking position behind speed types that on paper appear vulnerable. Kneedeepinsnow, with rising numbers, a good outside draw, and relatively lightly raced with room for further development, is the one to fear most. A sharp winner against a second-level allowance field last month, then S. Ruis-trained horse is 10-1 on the morning line and offers wagering value at anywhere near this price. Preference on top goes to Ax Man but both should be used in rolling exotic play.

RACE 8: Post: 4:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Clearly Gone; 10-Applecross

Forecast: Applecross has faced tough stakes foes in all but one of her five U.S. outings and returns to the first level allowance ranks for what should be a confidence-building win. A sharp runner-up at this level two runs back, she’s drawn a bit farther out than we’d prefer and lacks tactical speed, but against this group we’re expecting the Irish-bred filly to be along in time. We’ll also include Clearly Gone, seven years old but fresh from a career-top speed figure earning third place effort against $40,000 claimers over this course and distance last month. The P. Miller-trained daughter of Unusual Heat can turn it on late and with good racing luck should be dangerous in the final furlong.

RACE 9: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Nurse Hardbody; 5-Best of Show; 9-Shanghai Sunrise

Forecast: Shanghai Sunrise shows up in a claimer for the first time, removes blinkers, adds Lasix, and lands the cozy outside draw in this modest maiden claiming extended sprint for sophomore fillies. She seems like the logical top pick, but at 2-1 on the morning there’s really not a whole lot of value to be found. Best of Show, a distant third in her debut last month at Los Alamitos while passing a few in the lane, gets an extra furlong to work with today and with any kind of forward move should be in the battle when it counts. Nurse Hardbody finished far back in the same race Best of Show exits but has worked rather well since, gets Lasix, and could easily be much better than shown. All three should be included in rolling exotic play.