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Sunday, January 24: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

January 24, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Sugary; 2-Quinnie

Forecast: Quinnie is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, and after a bit of freshening she should be capable of returning to winning form. Given the patient ride she requires from J. J. Hernandez, the daughter of English Channel can produce the last run. Sugary is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, likes the local lawn, and with some pace up front to compliment her late running style the M. Jones-trained old-timer may make some noise late. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to go deeper, go right ahead,

RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B
Single: 1-Two Thirty Five

Forecast: Midwestern shipper Two Thirty Five always liked the Santa Anita main track and drops into a realistic spot in a five-runner $32,000 seller while being listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite. The local works should have him fit and ready for a winning effort in his first outing since mid-November, and from the rail the Stay Thirsty gelding projects to secure a comfortable stalking trip behind the likely controlling speed, Synthesis, and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.

RACE 3: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Avisse; 5-Mongolian Mission

Forecast: Avisse shows up in a claimer for the first time, has run well at this one mile trip in the past and looks logical as the 4/5 morning line favorite. Rolling exotic players may want to save with a ticket or two using Mongolian Mission, listed at 12-1. She’s bred for turf top and bottom and her main track workouts aren’t bad for a barn that always is dangerous with long shot debut runners.

RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Miss Kitness; 2-Tiz a Unicorn; 4-Mariah Girl

Forecast: Let’s include a couple of prices in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares while also using the logical top pick Mariah Girl, who moves up a notch into the nw-3 condition following a clever score last month over this track and distance in what was her first career start on dirt. She gets in light again and is a strong fit on speed figures. Tiz a Unicorn won a maiden claimer in good style during the fall meeting and returns in a proper spot with a healthy recent series of drills. Her numbers are improving with each outing and with another forward move today she should be highly competitive. We’re thinking she’s better than her morning line of 8-1. Miss Kitness, listed at 6-1, stretches out for the first time, lands the rail, and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. She’s certainly questionable at the trip, but if she’s ever going to stay a mile it’ll be in her first try.

RACE 5: Post: 2:37 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Wicks and Chappies

Forecast: In a race we’re not going to get too involved with, Wicks and Chappies seems ready to win after finishing in the money in each of her last three starts while earning numbers that are better than par for this level. We’re expecting the J. Sadler-trained filly to be on or near the lead throughout while also anticipating that she’ll go lower than her morning line of 9/5.

RACE 6: Post: 3:09 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Mr Vargas; 3-Thanks Mr. Eidson; 7-Strike Me Down

Forecast: Were not sure if we can trust Mr Vargas but if runs back to his runaway score at Los Alamitos last month he’ll be hard to catch as the projected controlling speed. He’ll pick up some weight today, but loose-on-the-lead types are always dangerous and he’s good enough to take full advantage of the situation. Thanks Mr. Eidson is slower on number than ‘Vargas but he’s genuine and consistent and has hit the board in all four of his starts over the Santa Anita turf course. He’ll draft into a good stalking position and then have every chance. Strike Me Down has been primarily a middle-distance specialist during his career but this turn back in trip makes him somewhat intriguing at 5-1. The veteran Tapit gelding trains like he’ll be happy to show more early speed if given the chance.

RACE 7: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Madam Barbarian

Forecast: Madam Barbarian is listed at 8/5 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go lower in this five-runner seven furlong dash for $12,500 claiming fillies and mares. The J. Mullins-trained mare has very little to beat while backing up to a sprint over a track she likes and the veteran mare, a winner of 12 races during her career, seems likely to add to that total from a good stalking early position. You can use her as a short-priced rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

RACE 8: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Quick Finish

Forecast: Quick Finish has been winless since 2018 but his recent form in excellent, he continues to impress in the morning, and after finishing second six times from eight starts in 2020 the D. Blacker-trained gelding is facing easier foes than he’s been used to seeing. From a comfortable second flight, stalking position, the son of Vronsky should be able to produce the last run against this (nw-3) starter’s allowance field. At 3-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.