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Saturday, January 30: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

January 30, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bossy Mama; 4-Our Little Tiger; 7-Ensleys Dream

Forecast: Bossy Mama has trained like a quick filly and if she leaves with her field the daughter of Street Boss could take this field of straight maiden state-bred 3-year-old fillies a very long way. She breezed three furlongs in a blistering :33 flat last year at the OBS April Sale (after which she brought $52,000 through the ring) and she’s displayed similar early zip in recent workouts leading up her racing debut. However, the Cal-bred daughter of Street Boss has had difficulty changing leads, and if she doesn’t switch over when set down for the drive the final furlong might prove worrisome. Our Little Tiger wound up a disappointing fifth in a similar affair on grass two weeks ago but her dirt works showed promise so we suspect she might be more effective on the main track. The daughter of Smiling Tiger should be doing her best work from off the pace, and at 6-1 on the morning line is worth using in rolling exotic play. Ensleys Dream, in the frame in all three of her starts as a 2-year-old, makes her first p.m. appearance since November and gets Lasix, F. Prat and a cozy outside draw. Her speed figures are just average and she’s lost ground from the furlong pole to the wire in each of her outings but with the addition of Lasix today the B. Koriner-trained filly may be able to finish a little better.

RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Tiz Toffee; 2-Canadian Ginger

Forecast: Tiz Toffee is a winner of her last six starts but was a voided claim when last seen in early September and was stopped on. The veteran mare returns at a higher level than she was competing for – a confident sign – and as a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track the daughter of Sidney’s Candy will be hard to beat if she’s fit and ready for a low profile but highly-capable outfit. Canadian Ginge is the one to fear most. A winner at this same $20,000 claiming price at Los Alamitos last month, the daughter of Flatter and can take heat and dish and it out, and certainly can win if she fires her best shot. The two main contenders are tough to separate but because both are projected to be short prices we’ll double the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out.

RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Twirling Derby; 7-Full Draw

Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden $20,000 main track miler for older horses doesn’t offer much to work with. Twirling Derby, a 10-race maiden, has finished second in each of his last three outings and not much improvement will be needed to earn his diploma, though at 2-1 on the morning line he’s not going to offer much value. Full Draw finished more than three lengths behind ‘Derby when they met here a couple of weeks ago over seven furlongs, but the son of Union Rags should improve at today’s longer distance. In another race that might otherwise be best left alone, both are worth inclusion in rolling exotic play.

RACE 4: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-This Tea; 3-Lookintogeteven

Forecast: This Tea, listed at 4/5 on the morning line, has been stuck on seconds in her last four starts but might finally be able to break through in this main track dirt miler for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Curlin earned a huge speed figure when a distant second to future stakes star As Time Goes By in a similar affair two weeks ago and anything close that effort today lands her in the winner’s circle. Lookintogeteven, a 10-race maiden, finished an okay third in her only prior outing on the main track so perhaps this daughter of Ghostzapper will appreciate the return to dirt. She likes to lag and then finish a bit and if the pace comes up decent, she could make some noise late.

RACE 5: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Idol

Forecast: Idol is lightly-raced, improving, and ready to take his place among the best older horses on the West Coast. The son of Curlin, an excellent runner-up in the San Antonio S.-G2 opening day, has trained extremely well since and should thoroughly enjoy today’s longer nine furlong trip. With enough tactical speed to always be within range and the ability to kick home when called upon, the R. Baltas-trained colt appears set to take his game to a new level so at 9/5 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Speed Pass; 3-Loud Mouth

Forecast: Loud Mouth, a respectable fourth in the Cal Cup Sprint two weeks ago, returns to the second level allowance ranks and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip and then have every chance to wear down the likely front-runner Speed Pass close home. The quick turnaround is of some concern, but the son of Boisterous, a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and very consistent in the speed figure department, retains regular rider A. Cedillo and can be counted on to fire another big shot. Speed Pass, away for almost a year, is the quickest in the field and will take this group as far as he can on the front end. The son of Bodemeister has a history of firing fresh for a barn that hits with a strong 21% with come-backers, so with J. Rosario taking the call we’re anticipating that this B. Baffert-trained gelding will get loose on the lead and be dangerous.

RACE 7: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Medina Spirit; 4-Hot Rod Charlie

Forecast: Medina Spirit followed a sharp debut maiden win at Los Alamitos in December with an even more impressive performance when second to his highly-regarded stable mate Life Is Good in the Sham S.-G3 earlier this month, closing resolutely to be beaten less than a length while 13 lengths clear of the rest in an extremely fast, highly-rated race. The son of the first crop Giant’s Causeway stallion Protonico has returned to work smartly in the interim, so we’re expecting a similar performance, perhaps even better. From the rail he can secure a ground-saving, stalking trip and then have dead aim when the pressure gets turned on. Hot Rod Charlie, 94-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after breaking his maiden over this track during the fall season, left that form behind with a superior runner-up effort behind champion Essential Quality and is another that has trained impressively since to expect another forward move today. The son of Oxbow switches to J. Rosario and it wouldn’t be surprising if he gave ‘Spirit with a serious challenge. We’ll give Medina Spirit the edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 8: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Cousin Eddie; 9-Sabuda; 12-Gabby Hayes

Forecast: The finale is a wide-open maiden claimer for 3-year-olds and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Use as many as your budget allows. Sabuda and Gabby Hayes, three-four finishers in a much tougher maiden special weight state-bred sprint just eight days ago, meet again on the class drop and both should be highly competitive. The former has good early speed and should stick much better against this group while the latter projects to enjoy a stalking trip outside and then have a chance to make his presence felt from the quarter pole home. Cousin Eddie, a first-timer at 15-1 on the morning line, represents stranger danger from the R. Ellis barn. The son of Eddington has shown a bit of ability in a.m. trials for a stable whose first-timers often run much better than they work. Beware.