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Sunday, January 31: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

January 31, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click to view today’s Daily Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-El Diablo Rojo; 3-Dark Prince

Forecast: Dark Prince returns to a dirt sprint and based on his much-troubled, fast-closing fourth place finish vs. similar two runs back the B. Baffert-trained gelding is good enough to beat this field. He may be most effective if held up early and allowed to run late, so given that type of ride the son of Cairo’s Prince may get up in time. El Diablo Rojo is another that should be heard from late. He has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and in a small field he shouldn’t have any traffic troubles when set down for the drive.

RACE 2: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Quiet Secretary; 6-Kept Waiting

Forecast: Kept Waiting is a sharp New York shipper with a local work tab that indicates she’s fit and ready for a big effort in her first start since October. Protected in this starter’s allowance turf miler, the daughter of Broken Vow projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Quiet Secretary shows the blinkers-off angle that we like so much, and in her second start off the layoff the Hard Spun field is stretching out and seems likely to be the controlling speed. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Kept Waiting on top.

RACE 3: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Defense Wins; 8-Old Indian Trick

Forecast: Defense Wins, claimed in his last pair and now in the D. O’Neill barn, is reunited with “win rider” A. Cedillo and though up in class appears capable of tagging the leaders with the patient ride he’s sure to receive. A prior winner over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Flatter has back numbers that are far better than par for this level and a recent good gate work indicates he’s ready to step forward. Old Indian Trick, in his second off a long layoff, seems likely to produce a significant forward move after appearing in need of a race when fourth in a similar restricted (nw-3) affair at this $20,000 price. Comfortably drawn outside and certain to enjoy a good stalking trip, the M. Puype-trained gelding blew out sharply over the training track four days ago and has back speed figure that are good enough win. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Defense Wins.

RACE 4: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Blackout; 2-Ian Glass; 3-Irish Heatwave

Forecast: Ian Glass arrives from New York with form good enough to win at this level and with recent local workouts that have been very sharp, the R. Falcone, Jr.-trained gelding seems well-spotted to secure some of that valuable ship-and-win bonus money. He’s always been most effective as the controlling speed, so we’re expecting him to bust out and employ gate-to-wire tactics. Blackout removes blinkers, lands the rail, and gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer. He’s likely to draft into a good ground-saving, stalking position and have every chance from there. Irish Heatwave, a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, shows up in a claimer for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class relief. With some help up front, the son of Unusual Heat could be heard from in the final furlong.

RACE 5: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Enriched by Deb; 6-Midnight Jamboree

Forecast: Enriched by Deb stretches out for the first time, and we suspect that if she’s ever going to stay a mile it will be in her first try. The daughter of Munnings broke her maiden over this main track three runs back and though disappointing last time out as the favorite when fourth in a similar spot sprinting, she had a right to need the outing and may get brave if she’s not respected on the front end. Midnight Jamboree was more than four lengths clear of the rest when second over this track and distance last month. She’s lightly raced with room for further improvement and may be the most dangerous of the closing types. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play but if you feel the need to go deeper, go right ahead.

RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Y Not Sizzle; 4-Scarlet Heat; 7-Almost a Factor

Forecast: This grass grab bag for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares over nine furlongs has several possibilities. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Scarlet Heat may be as good as any. The D. Blacker-trained mare has generally run well over the local lawn, and in her second start off a layoff with a nice series of workouts in the interim the daughter of Unusual Heat should be set for a significant forward move. She’s 4-1 on the morning line and that seems about right. Almost a Factor, freshened since early November, sports a healthy recent work tab to have her fit and ready and with the presence of J. Rosario in the saddle the C. Gaines-trained filly figures to be a serious late factor. Y Not Sizzle, in the frame in 10 of 15 career starts, is another returning off a vacation. The J. Mullins barn has solid stats with layoff runners so we’re expecting this Cal-bred mare to at least hit the board.

RACE 7: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Silk From Heaven; 7-Kristi’s Tiger

Forecast: Kristi’s Tiger gets the ideal outside draw in this seven furlong sprint for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares and because she won her debut, we know she can fire fresh. Second at this level when last seen in late September, the R. Bell-trained filly should settle somewhere in mid-pack and then have her chance to produce a winning late bid. Silk From Heaven, a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, lacks tactical speed but most recently rallied from far back to secure a grass victory last month with a number that is better than par for this level. If she can turn in two alike, she can be very dangerous right back. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while preferring Kristi’s Tiger on top.

RACE 8: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Mr Verracity; 2-Inch; 4-Midnight Mystery

Forecast: The finale is a wide-open maiden $50,000 claiming turf sprint for older horses. Inch is a first-time gelding returning off a two month layoff and worked considerably better in recent weeks than he has in the past, so we’re expecting significant improvement from the M. McCarthy-trained son of Violence. His fourth place finish (beaten less than two lengths) over this turf course during the fall season charts well with these, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s worth strong consideration both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Midnight Mystery has good early speed but always is suspect under pressure in the final furlong. He’ll take them as far as he can. Mr Verracity was a non-threatening fifth in a similar spot in his debut earlier this month but has returned to train well and could step forward with that race under his belt. As a grandson of More Than Ready, the M. Puype-trained gelding has a right to be better on grass than dirt and is worth tossing in at 12-1 on the morning line.