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Sunday, January 31: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

by Al Cimaglia

January 31, 2021

Cal Expo has a 12 race Sunday card ready to go. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 9 and it will be my focus. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

6-Bettor Lady (4-1)-This 7-year-old mare is only 1-22 in 2020-2021 but has won 12 of 52 at CalX. Gets a little class relief and stayed inside in last. Could skim the pylons again and use one move down the lane to sweep by. Will use and hope isn't over bet.
8-Kiss On The Lips (6-1)-One of two Longo entries (8/10) and was Plano's choice over the 5. Veteran mare is in a spot to shine and did beat this kind on 12-11 from the 9-hole.
9-Fancy Creek Jolene (6-1)-The post draw makes the price and has been competitive versus better. Should have enough gate speed to race near the top of the stack. Looks like a player with a smooth trip.

Race 10

1-Haulin' Oats (6-1)-Left from the rail in last and tried a new tactic. Cut the mile and cashed a 3rd place check fading a bit down the lane. Bumps up a touch but has improved in the last 2 tries and the main players start from outside posts.
7-Frewil Dakota Sven (5/2)-Broke versus this kind in last and was far back early in the mile but did rally for 4th. Has been getting on the engine versus better but not sure how aggressive Kerwood will be at the start. Using and counting on the morning line being wrong.
8-Blue Star Trooper (8-1)-Was parked on a sloppy track when dropped to this level last week. Did race the back half in 57.1 and went a faster 2nd half (56.1) in the previous start. Looking for Svendsen to be in striking range at the top of the lane and the price should be juicy.
9-Marc Mellow Man (6-1)-Hasn't been in this soft since the 2nd race at the meet on 11-27 and was off 3 weeks before the last start. This isn't an easy race to read and #7 may win but at the program odds offers no value so will look for a solid price. Roland could leave, duck and rally down the lane as the pace should be solid.

Race 11

7-Hoo Nien A (7/2)-If #8 doesn't have his fastball this 9-year-old looks like the most likely picture taker. Did some nice work at Aces and has earned more than the chalk in 2020 banking over $51,000. But has only 1 win in 5 tries here and that was versus Open II company.
8-Allmyx'sliventexas (5/2)-Program chalk is a perfect 5 for 5 at the meet and now won't be handicapped with post 10. The winning streak will end at some point but not looking to dismiss here.

Race 12

4-Marced Magic (5/2)-Beat this kind on 12-5 and 12-26 and Plano was also steering in the last win. Has won 6 of 25 at CalX and could be a clean trip away from another picture.
5-Buzz Light (3-1)-Dropped and popped for the 1st win of the meet. Now takes on better but last two races have been the best efforts since the beginning of December. Roland can work an efficient trip from this post and should be in the mix.

My Ticket

Race 9) 6,8,9

Race 10) 1,7,8,9

Race 11) 7,8

Race 12) 4,5

Total Ticket Cost) $9.60 for $0.20

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