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Saturday, February 06: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

by Al Cimaglia

February 6, 2021

Cal Expo has a 12-race card ready to go tonight. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

3-Paddy Murphy (9/2)-May have met a beatable field and can close in a hurry with the right trip. Loses Stewart but Chappell has driven before. Beaten chalk should be in the hunt.
4-Artspire (2-1)-Roland trainee drops to a softer spot and makes 4th start on Lasix. Maybe Lasix is starting to help, went the 2nd half in 56.2 last week and Roland may look to put in play sooner.
7-Regal Mark (15-1)-One move type that starts slowly. Camera shy but could benefit from a quicker pace and doesn't mind passing foes down the lane. This race feels like it might be worthwhile to search for a price.
8-Le Montrachet (12-1)-Loses Cutting but Stewart can put this long shot into play. Willing to take a swing with this mare rather than #10 the 2nd program chalk.

Race 10

2-Sneak Peek Hanover (6-1)-Winner in 2 of the past 3 and took a picture last week at 27-1. The odds won't be as long tonight but should offer a fair price. Could take another picture if Succarotte can steal a quarter.
3-Glen (7/2)-Also likes to race on the engine or near the top of the stack. Drops to a spot to shine and Svendsen should be well positioned at the top of the lane. Four-year-old is only 2-23, but best to respect as this is not a field full of picture takers.
5-Johnny Ringo (5/2)-Came off a sick scratch and was stuck with post 9 and post 10. Did close well in both efforts and should relish this post draw.

Race 11

3-Buddy's Hope (5-1)-Moves up after finishing 1st and 2nd in two fast miles. Can fly down the lane and this pace could be quick. Starts inside of the morning line favorites and should offer a square price.
6-Ponda's Prospect (3-1)-Got the jump on the favorites in last and was a well-meant winner. The chalks should be tighter tonight but best to not overlook chances for a repeat.
7-Allmyx'sliventexas (9/5)-Has been dominant at this class and deserves a pass on the 6th place finish last week. Couldn't get the top and was hung out but doesn't usually throw 2 clunkers in a row.

Race 12

2-Bettor's Promise (8-1)-Ten-year-old is a threat if fires best shot. The inside post draw can help. Should be able to get an efficient trip and use one brush down the lane to cash the biggest check.
4-Almost Cut My Hair (6-1)-Form has been dull but drops to a comfortable level. Thinking Svendsen will race near the top of the stack and this veteran could wake-up.
9-Pecorino (6-1)-Won at this level on 11/27 and has been facing better since and hasn't fared as well. Could leave hard to get a good early seat and try to shake free late. Should be a solid price and has the speed to be there at the wire.

My Ticket

Race 9) 3,4,7,8

Race 10) 2,3,5

Race 11) 3,6,7

Race 12) 2,4,9

Total Ticket Cost) = $21.60 for $0.20

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