Welcome to a new handicapping series for our Monday blog space entitled “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses bet down from longshot morning-line prices are live and must be considered.

Background:

Last week’s Monday Myths looked at “They Knew,” the assumption that first-timers and long layoff horses bet to favoritism were insider jobs worth backing. The numbers proved that false, but in presenting them, some readers made reasonable questions about what exactly “They Knew” means. The suggestion that any horse bet down hard off its morning line qualifies in that vein prompted me back to the database. Is it true? That’s the entire point of this series. Let’s find out.

Data Points:

I crunched the numbers in the Betmix database for every race over the past 5 years, beginning with the start of the 2016 season. I looked at how the public bet every horse in each race based on their morning line and final odds. We studied longshots at 20-1, 15-1 and 10-1 in the morning line and compared their win % and ROI based on how far they were or were not bet down from that price. We then compared those results to all horses in those odds ranges no matter the morning line suggestion.

Overall Findings:

Horses morning-lined at 20-1 and who remain 15-1 or more win 2% with a $0.74 ROI.
All horses who go off 15-1 or more win 2% with a $0.66 ROI.

Horses morning-lined at 20-1 and who remain 10-1 to 14-1 win 7% with a $0.88 ROI.
All horses who go off 10-1 to 14-1 win 6% with a $0.80 ROI

Horses morning-lined at 20-1 and who remain 5-1 to 9-1 win 12% with a $0.99 ROI.
All horses who go off 5-1 to 9-1 win 11% with a $.80 ROI.

Horses morning-lined at 20-1 and who are bet 9-2 or less win 25% with a $0.99 ROI.
All horses who go off 9-2 or less win 26% with a $0.82 ROI.

Horses morning-lined at 15-1 and who remain 15-1 or more win 2% with a $0.67 ROI.
All horses who go off 15-1 or more win 2% with a $0.66 ROI.

Horses morning-lined at 15-1 and who remain 10-1 to 14-1 win 7% with a $0.86 ROI.
All horses who go off 10-1 to 14-1 win 6% with a $0.80 ROI

Horses morning-lined at 15-1 and who remain 5-1 to 9-1 win 10% with a $0.83 ROI.
All horses who go off 5-1 to 9-1 win 11% with a $.80 ROI.

Horses morning-lined at 15-1 and who are bet 9-2 or less win 22% with a $0.88 ROI.
All horses who go off 9-2 or less win 26% with a $0.82 ROI.

Horses morning-lined at 10-1 and who remain 10-1 or more win 4% with a $0.74 ROI.
All horses who go off 10-1 or more win 3% with a $0.72 ROI.

Horses morning-lined at 10-1 and who remain 5-1 to 9-1 win 11% with a $0.87 ROI.
All horses who go off 5-1 to 9-1 win 11% with a $.80 ROI.

Horses morning-lined at 10-1 and who are bet 9-2 or less win 22% with a $0.88 ROI.
All horses who go off 9-2 or less win 26% with a $0.82 ROI.

Overall Findings Verdict:

No doubt longshot-priced horses in the morning line who are bet down win more often than those whose prices remain high as suggested by the ML projection. That could be a product of a bad morning line guesstimate.

But note ‘live’ horses bet down from higher morning lines don’t win any more often than their counterparts who wind up at similar final prices as bet by the public. In other words, all 4-1 shots win about the same rate within a point or two no matter if they were 4-1 in the morning line or bet down from 15-1.

But there are very notable differences in your returns. With a takeout of approximately 17% in the win pool on average, that means you need $0.83 back on each play to neutralize the takeout. Betting horses 10-1, 15-1 and 20-1 in the morning line who are bet down considerably off that number does show a much more attractive ROI than all runners in those price ranges, and in many cases beats the ROI. In fact, horses 20-1 in the morning line bet into single-digit odds is almost a break-even proposition, one of the stronger ROI angles you’ll see in handicapping.

Bottom line:

Sometimes the morning line projection is just plain off, and other times the public congeals around an opinion that may not look obvious on paper. Either way, horses that move considerably off their large morning line projections may provide more value than you think. The ROI on these horses is considerable and noteworthy, cancelling out some of that urge to deem them an underlay and undervalued. They won’t win any more often than other horses at similar final prices, but they can move your needle further ahead in your account balance.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, take a look at the tracks you play most often to see if they fall in line with this study’s conclusions. Better yet, look at individual trainers and see who might have the most ‘live’ barns when their ML longshots are bet down. For instance, Rusty Arnold is 7: 3-2-1 the last 5 years when a 20-1 ML shot is bet to single-digit odds ($2.51 ROI). Try it out for yourself!