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Sunday, May 09: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

May 9, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to View Today's Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sunshine Babe; 5-Keep Dancing

Forecast: Keep Dancing improved dramatically in her first start since joining the K. Mulhall barn when finishing a good second in a similar maiden turf event last month. She gets an extra furlong to work with and won’t have impressive next-out winner Ultimate Hy to contend with today. She’s 7/5 on the morning line and may go lower. Sunshine Babe is another that will enjoy today’s nine furlong trip and with another forward move should at least be capable of completing the exacta. Toss in her in on a back-up ticket.

RACE 2: Post: 1:38 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Finneus; 4-Street Art; 6-Bochombo

Forecast: This appears to be a stronger than par maiden special weight sprint for juvenile colts. We’ll pass the race while going three-deep in our rolling exotics. Bochombo has trained like a good colt for a barn that excels with two-year-old first-timers, and from his outside draw he should have clear sailing and every chance to perform up to expectations. Street Art, listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, is another that has impressed in his a.m. trials. He hasn’t been asked to show his true speed yet but acts like a colt with plenty of zip. Today we’ll find out how much. Finneus has done all of his important work off the grid at San Luis Rey Downs so we’re flying blind, but with the presence of F. Prat in the saddle the son of Stay Thirsty must be well regarded. His works are quick and indicate he has at least some amount of speed.

RACE 3: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Li’l Grazen; 3-Respectfully; 4-Eddie’s Dream

Forecast: Eddie’s Dream tackles seasoned foes in her first start since finishing a close third in the Golden State Juveniles Fillies Stakes last November, so this is a tough assignment for the daughter of Square Eddie. However, she has been impressive in the morning, is competitive on speed figures, gets Lasix for the first time, and certainly has shown some quality in three career outings. At 3-1 on the morning line, the B. Cecil-trained filly could very well out class this group. Respectfully, fastest on pure numbers and improving with every outing, is strictly the one to beat. She’s effective on any surface and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Li’l Grazen just won from a similar Cal-bred optional claiming field in her first start since being claimed by P. Miller and is the logical morning line favorite at 6/5. The rail shouldn’t be an issue and if she runs back to her last start she’ll be difficult to beat. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press with Eddie’s Dream - the best price of the three – with a few extra tickets on top.

RACE 4: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: C
Use: 2-You Wanna Ear Rip; 3-Tiz Wonderfully; 5-Mongolian Window

Forecast: Tiz Wonderfully just annihilated a similar field over this track and distance last month and is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite to come back and do it again. If she can turn in two alike, she’ll probably repeat, but will offer little wagering value even if she does. You Wanna Ear Rip, third (beaten six lengths) by ‘Wonderfully last time out, today receives a nine pound break in the weights for her new connections so she certainly could close the gap while Mongolian Window, fourth in that same race, drops seven pounds and is another that could make a serious run for it. All three should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 5: Post: 3:18 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Commander; 5-Kandarel; 7-Speedy Justice

Forecast: Speedy Justice, unbeaten in two turf sprints at Del Mar, the first one in November of 2019 and the most recent last summer, launches yet another comeback but according to his workouts the son of Dominus hasn’t lost a step. The B. Baffert-trained colt is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and will extend his winning streak to three if he runs back to either one of his first two outings. Commander was below his best when fifth as the favorite in a similar turf sprint here in late March, but the P. Miller-trained gelding has a legitimate look off his highly-rated score over this course and distance two runs back. He’ll be running on late. Kandarel has looked sharp in recent drills and probably is a bit better than his morning line of 8-1 would indicate. Toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.

RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Defense Wins; 7-Took Charge

Forecast: Took Charge, a first-time gelding, weakened after leading the way into the stretch when facing a tougher group in his local bow last month but with that race behind him combined with a class drop the P. Miller-trained son of Take Charge Indy should be tough to run down. The switch to F. Prat is another positive sign; this trainer/jockey combo hits at 35% with a massive ROI. Defense Wins, runner-up in his last three, is faster on numbers than our top pick and is the morning line favorite at 8/5. He’s just 1-for-14 in his career but at least that victory was accomplished over the local lawn. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Took Charge.

RACE 7: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Leggs Galore; 5-Warren’s Showtime

Forecast: There’s more than enough early pace in this race to set things up for the best closer and Warren’s Showtime certainly is that. The late-running daughter of Clubhouse Ride exits a series of graded stakes races and today drops into state-bred company, so with the projected pace flow in her favor the C. Lewis-trained filly, listed at 6/5 on the morning line, should be along in plenty of time. Leggs Galore stretches out for the first time and lands the rail, so gate-to-wire strategy surely will be employed. She is probably the quickest of the quick, so if she can clear early without undue pressure the daughter of Bayern may be able take this field a long way.

RACE 8: Post: 4:54 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Contagion; 3-Law Professor; 8-Waspirant

Forecast: Contagion, nosed out when claimed for $20,000 by P. Miller last time out, is protected today in a sign of confidence by a barn that hits with 25% (along with powerful ROI) with this angle. The switch to F. Prat is massive and the Fed Biz gelding, a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, should be capable of a career top effort from his favorable inside draw. Law Professor, a 3-year-old tackling older and making just his fourth career start, has looked especially sharp in the a.m. since being overmatched in the Santa Anita Derby and could be set for a significant forward move today even though he’s being asked to tackle older rivals. The son of Constitution projects to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim into the lane. Waspirant is another sophomore facing older foes but is a first-time gelding with a sharp recent workout and could easily be better than his recent races indicate. After trying stakes company in his last three starts, the son of Union Rags has been freshened since February and will appreciate this drop to a first level allowance event.

RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Adare; 3-Uncle Addouma; 10-City Rage

Forecast: Here’s a wide-open grass grab bag to close out the Sunday program. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but if you’d feel more comfortable using a few more, go right ahead. Uncle Addouma improved dramatically in his first start on grass when graduating in sharp style with a strong speed figure and if he can build on that performance today the son of Uncle Mo should have a chance to spring another upset. At 12-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a gamble. City Rage seems likely to fold into a comfortable pace-stalking position from his outside draw and then have every chance to register his fourth career victory over the Santa Anita turf course. Regular rider F. Prat stays aboard and knows him well. Adare is back sprinting and trying grass for the first time. He’s fast on figures, exits a productive race, and offers good value at or near his morning line of 8-1. Toss him in.