Log In

Friday, May 28: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

May 28, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Drizella

Forecast: Drizella was beaten 10 lengths when a distant runner-up to the talented Big Treat in her debut last month but was almost three lengths clear of the rest in what was a fairly decent effort under the circumstances. The daughter of Stanford seems certain to benefit from the outing and because the first-timers appear somewhat ordinary on paper let’s go with the proven element on top as a rolling exotic single for a barn that has strong stats with second-time starters.

RACE 2: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Exalted Joy; 5-Poseidon Wrath

Forecast: Poseidon Wrath, a solid runner-up in his debut last month at Keeneland and searching for some ship-and-win money following a $50,000 claim by a sharp outfit, shows up for the same price today and seems the solid top choice in a five-runner maiden claiming main track miler. The Super Saver gelding projects to be the controlling speed under good bug girl J. Pyfer, who is not afraid to allow front-running types to show their speed. Exalted Joy drops to a realistic level, is competitive on speed figures and sports a decent work since raced. He’s guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from the rail and appears to have found his proper level. We’ll prefer Poseidon Wrath on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Trouville; 6-Lalic; 8-Shanghai Sunrise

Forecast: Shanghai Sunrise makes her first start on grass and if she can duplicate her main track form in this starter allowance six furlong sprint she can score again after winning a similar affair here last month. Drawn comfortably outside and with enough early speed to make the running or settle into a stalking position, the M. Puype-trained filly has rising speed figures and a sharp recent workout to indicate another forward move is likely. Lalic retains F. Prat and is lightly-raced and improving while seeking her third straight score over the local lawn. Today she must pick up 8 lbs. and is catching more early speed than she had to deal with in her most recent score, but two races back she rallied from off the pace to graduate from maiden claimers so Prat can assess the pace flow today and choose his best path. Trouville, in the frame in 12 of 14 career starts, continues to impress in the a.m. and will need only slight improvement to be a legitimate threat from the quarter pole home. Toss her in somewhere.

RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Summer Rose

Forecast: Summer Rose stretches out for the first time (always like this angle) and projects to be on the lead or in a comfortable stalking position this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. The daughter of Jimmy Creed has worked like a mare that will step forward considerably with the stretch out in trip and goes for a barn that has good stats with this maneuver. If she’s ever going to handle two-turns, it will most likely be in her first try, so let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Charette; 5-Clearly Gone

Forecast: Charette was claimed for $25,000 in mid-March by J. Sadler and was subsequently a stewards’ scratch when re-entered for that same price earlier this month (it wasn’t a physical problem, she worked the next day). In what we’ll take as a sign of confidence, the veteran is re-entered on the raise for a barn that has strong stats with the first-off-the-claim angle, and she gets a serious break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy C. Ortega. A healthy recent series of a.m. drills catches the eye, and from the rail she’s assured of a good ground-saving trip, so let’s go with the daughter of Hard Spun in the win pool and as the main push in rolling exotic play. For protection, we’ll also include on a ticket or two Clearly Gone, a genuine and consistent performer. She switches to U. Rispoli and generally produces a good late kick that makes her a strong threat despite the class hike.

RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Katla; 6-Class Code

Forecast: Trainer C. Gaines has two major players in this $20,000 maiden claiming main track miler (a split of the fourth race) for fillies and mares. Katla, runner-up under these conditions last month and today getting a weight break with the switch to J. Pyfer, projects to be comfortably placed on or near the lead in a field without much speed. With any kind of forward move she should be capable of earning her diploma. Stable mate Class Code flashed speed sprinting before fading in her debut, but today’s stretch out and is dropping from maiden special weight to the bottom maiden claiming level, so we’ll use her as well in rolling exotic play.

RACE 7: Post: 4:24 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Railsplitter; 2-Onenightstandards; 4-Hammering Lemon

Forecast: This looks like a fairly wide-open starter optional claiming turf miler requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Onenightstandards, claimed at Keeneland for $20,000 two races back, earned a career top speed figure in his West Coast debut when third vs. similar at this distance on the main track last month. A winner of his only prior grass outing last summer at Ellis Park, the M. Glatt-trained colts switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider J. J. Hernandez and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip from his comfortable two-hole post position. Hammering Lemon shows up in a seller for the first time – a long overdue drop in class – and at this level the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should be quite competitive. He’s a fit on numbers, had a nice workout six days ago, and could find himself as the controlling speed if his connections opt for that game plan. O’Neill’s other entrant, Railsplitter, backs up from a mile, lands the rail, and should be prominent throughout in his first start since joining this stable. Runner-up at this level in a nine-furlong affair last month, the son of Bodemeister appears to lack a winning punch (he’s one-for-14 in his career and three times second from five starts over this course) but in an open fray has to be considered a contender.

RACE 8: Post: 4:54 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Rebel War; 6-I Am Allthatyourare; 8-Eel Point

Forecast: Here’s another challenging affair, this one a restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming dash for older horses. Eel Point is most effective as a late-running sprinter and with the shortening in trip and the drop in class to below his claim level, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding may have found his friends. The Into Mischief gelding will need some help up front but with a decent pace to chase and clear sailing through the lane he might be able to produce a winning late kick. I Am Allthatyourare was overmatched in a starter’s $50,000 affair on grass last time out but a repeat of his good runner-up effort two runs back at this level makes him a prime contender. The son of Tale of the Cat has won on the lead and from a stalking position so R. Gonzalez can judge the pace flow and adjust his strategy. Rebel War makes his third start off a long layoff, and it should be his best in the current form cycle. Shortening to six furlongs may help him stick around longer and with a prior win over the local main track and speed figures that fit the V. Brinkerhoff-trained gelding figures strongly in the fray. Toss him in on a ticket or two.