Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Monmouth’s new no-whip restrictions would create uncertainty in handicapping.

Background:

Three weeks of racing have now been conducted at New Jersey’s Monmouth Park, which outlawed the use of whips in races in 2021. The announcement immediately caused consternation among many jockeys and horseplayers, concerned about safety and trust of competition factors. The racing has been relatively incident-free in terms of the safety concerns, knock on wood. That portion obviously is open for debate in other forums. As for the horses performing to their expected level and form based on public perception in the mutuel pools, that’s where a study of the results can shed light.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to track all 67 races at Monmouth since the new season and rules began, as well as races to compare from past Monmouth seasons and races of similar field size.

Overall Findings:

Favorites are winning 48% to start the current Monmouth meet without whips.

Favorites won 38% at Monmouth during all 2020 racing in a pandemic-altered schedule with whips.

Favorites won 45% at Monmouth during 2019 pre-pandemic (traditional schedule) with whips.



Adjusted for field sizes of 8 or more:

Favorites are winning 44% in fields of 8 or more at the current Monmouth meet without whips.

Favorites won 36% at Monmouth during all 2020 racing in a pandemic-altered schedule with whips.

Favorites won 42% at Monmouth during 2019 pre-pandemic (traditional schedule) with whips.



The average winner is paying 3.64-1 odds to start the current Monmouth Meet without whips.

The average winner paid 5.93-1 odds at Monmouth during all 2020 racing in a pandemic-altered schedule with whips.

The average winner paid 4.18-1 at Monmouth during 2019 pre-pandemic (traditional schedule) with whips.



6% of races have been won by upsetters at 10-1 or more in odds at the current Monmouth meet without whips.

11% of races have been won by upsetters at 10-1 or more in odds at Monmouth during all 2020 racing in a pandemic-altered schedule with whips.

9% of races have been won by upsetters at 10-1 or more in odds at Monmouth during 2019 pre-pandemic (traditional schedule) with whips.

Bottom line:

Racing without whips has produced the highest percentage of winning favorites over the past 3 seasons – even when adjusted for field size – as well as the lowest average win returns and the lowest percentage of longshot winners at 10-1 or more. We’re just over 10% into the number of races offered annually at Monmouth, so it’s still very early to draw conclusions. But you’d have to agree that the data so far indicates the fears of tote chaos are greatly unfounded and exaggerated. The lack of whips used by riders in the Monmouth races so far has had no negative impact on the public’s ability to evaluate the horses.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which jockeys or trainers have fared best in certain situations with the new rules. Interestingly so far, the top of the jockey standings in 2021 look exactly as they did in 2019 pre-pandemic with Jose Ferrer, Nik Juarez and Paco Lopez still enjoying great