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Friday, June 11: Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

June 11, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to view Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Flash of Genius; 6-Runningoutoflove; 7-Bet On Mookie

Forecast: Two-year-olds sprint five furlongs on turf in the Friday opener in a race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Bet On Mookie has the benefit of a prior run, a decent runner-up effort on dirt last month in what was a respectable race for the level. With War Front on the bottom side of his pedigree, the son of Uncaptured should have no issues with grass, so with any kind of forward move the P. Miller-trained colt should be tough to beat. The “other” Miller in the field, the debuting Flash of Genius, breezed a furlong in a rapid 10 seconds flat before bringing $67,000 through the ring at the OBS March Sale and shows a series of solid recent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have him fit and ready. If he breaks running from the rail, the son of Flashback projects to be a major player every step of the way. Also worth including in rolling exotic play is the first-timer Runningoutoflove, a son of Acclamation and therefore bred to excel on grass. The B. Koriner-trained colt has done some good work in the a.m. and looks like a live item under top grass rider U. Rispoli.

RACE 2: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Silver Moon Road; 4-Honor Among Men

Forecast: Honor Among Men shows up in a claimer after failing at 4/5 in a maiden special weight sprint up north in his first start since the summer of 2019 and just his second overall outing. The 4-year-old son of Bayern obviously has issues but against this group the S. Callaghan-trained gelding should be capable of dominating from gate to wire. We like the blinkers off angle and the switch to F. Prat, so in a field without much speed he should have every chance to wire the field. Silver Moon Road, also vanning down from Golden Gate Fields, hit the board in both of his two prior outings and on pure numbers is strictly the one to beat. The T. Yakteen-trained 3-year-old has as good stalking style that works well at this extended sprint distance. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Honor Among Me.

RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Navy Queen; 6-Best of Show; 7-Maggie’s Magic

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares is a treacherous affair in which nothing would surprise. We’ll use three and hope to survive and advance. Although she just broke her maiden in a two-turn main track miler, Best of Show might actually prove most effective as a late-running turf sprinter and gets a chance to verify that impression today. In a field loaded with suspect speed, the daughter of Honor Code figures to have every chance from the quarter pole to the wire to produce a winning late kick. She’s in light, shows improving speed figures, and likely has further improvement in her, so at 5-1 on the morning line we’ll put her on top. Navy Queen was overmatched when unplaced in a state-bred first-level allowance race last time out but is realistically spotted today and seems likely to bounce back with a good performance. She has a prior win over the local lawn and is reunited with J. Pyfer, who got good run out of her when second over the local lawn two races back. She’s the likely choice and one to beat. Maggie’s Magic, first off the claim for R. Hess, Jr., is a consistent type with steadily rising speed figures. If she can transfer her dirt form to grass, she’ll have a legitimate look.

RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Sir Flatter; 7-Gerlach’s

Forecast: Gerlach’s drops to his lowest level ever while stretching out for the first time and seems a solid top pick in this modest bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler. The Grazen gelding is a fit on numbers, retains K. Desormeaux, and projects to draft into a comfortable second flight position outside and take control when ready. Sir Flatter lands the rail and seems certain to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip. The P. Miller-trained gelding plummets in class to where his best makes him the one to fear most. These are the two we’ll be including in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Gerlach’s.

RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: X
Use: 6-Storm the Bastille

Forecast: Storm the Bastille has little to beat in this $25,000 claiming turf miler and is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite. The French-bred 5-year-old removes blinkers (one of our favorite angles) for new trainer P. Miller and makes a monumental jockey switch to F. Prat while dropping to his lowest level ever. Though winless in nine prior outings over the Santa Anita turf course, the French-bred veteran should be along in time in a race with enough early speed signed on to compliment his late-running style. You can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B
Single: 8-Nobu

Forecast: Nobu drops into a soft maiden claimer after failing to deliver the goods at 4/5 in a maiden special weight sprint at Golden Gate Fields in late April. Clearly, this former $140,000 2-year-old in training purchase is being culled from the stable but against this group she should be able to dominate from gate to wire with anything close to her best. We’re hoping J. Pyfer, who rides speed horses as well as anybody, can keep her together late because the daughter of Uncaptured must be considered somewhat suspect in the final furlong, even against this group. However, at or near her morning line of 5/2 the S. Callaghan-trained filly is worth a play in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post: 4:24 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Wyfire; 3-Swiss Swoo; 6-Harbored Memories

Forecast: Harbored Memories just graduated over this course and distance in good style with a strong speed figure, has trained well since, and can dictate his trip from his comfortable outside draw. He’s the logical morning line favorite at 9/5 and clearly the one to beat, but in a stronger than par first level allowance event we’ll include a couple of other major players in rolling exotic play. Wyfire adds Lasix while making his first start since narrowly missing in the Speakeasy S. over the local lawn last September. The talented 3-year-old shows a healthy series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs top have him fit and ready off the bench, and with F. Prat taking the call for P. Miller, this first-time gelding appears the one to fear most. Swiss Swoo has done some useful work in the morning for a barn that always does well with European shippers. A winner of a maiden race over the all-weather surface at Dundalk during the winner, the Irish-bred gelding is bred for turf, gets Lasix, and projects to be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance to spring a mild surprise.

RACE 8: Post: 4:54 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Head for Business; 4-Hello Handsome

Forecast: The morning line favorite at 9/5 in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for California-bred older horses is Active Account, a first-time starter with okay but not great workouts on his resume. At that price, he’s worth trying to beat with two others that may offer better wagering value. Head for Business makes the critical class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming for a barn that has good stats with this angle, switches to the main track, removes blinkers, and should have enough early speed to take advantage of his inside draw. Hello Handsome does the same after just one start and he, too, should greatly appreciate the softer assignment. He’s trained fairly well on dirt, so at least in his case we’re not too concerned with the switch to the main track.