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Saturday, June 19: Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

June 19, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to view Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 7-Lena’s Big Day

Forecast: Lena’s Big Day has done some excellent work in a series of main track drills leading up to her racing debut and as a daughter of Mr. Big should be most effective on grass. The 3-year-old filly has displayed good speed, the ability to close, and a lovely way of moving in her a.m. trials to indicate she may be a cut above the norm. In what certainly appears to be a below par race for older maiden state-bred distaffers, the C. Gaines-trained homebred seems the solid choice at 5/2 on the morning line, so with top rider F. Prat taking the call, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: X-
Use: 4-Censorship; 5-Eda

Forecast: B. Baffert workmates Censorship and Eda will break side-by-side in this maiden special weight five furlong sprint for juvenile fillies and therein lies the race within the race. In the morning, Censorship is the quicker of the two, but Eda generally looks best late, so they’re really hard to separate, though at this abbreviated five furlong trip the former, a daughter of speed sire Munnings, may hold a slight edge over the latter, a daughter of Tonalist and therefor likely to need a bit more ground. In any cause, we’ll pass the race other than to include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tatters to Riches; 4-Texas Wedge; 7-Chasin Munny

Forecast: Chasin Munny exits a stronger race and appears capable of regaining his winning form from a cozy outside post position that should allow new jockey F. Prat to dictate his trip. Quick enough to make the lead or handy enough to settle and stalk, the son of Munnings is lightly-raced with arguably the most room to improve among the major contenders. Texas Wedge is capable of winning a race such as this on his best day, but this is a relatively quick turn around after he finished a good third in his comeback at Lone Star Park three weeks ago. First or second in 10 of 22 career starts, the P. Miller-trained gelding switches to U. Rispoli and projects to draft into a good stalking position and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Tatters to Riches hasn’t been out since December of 2018 but has trained like he’s his old self (perhaps better) and returns in a stakes race, a move that we view as a sign of confidence. Perhaps this outing is just a prep for Del Mar but at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on a ticket or two as a saver.

RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Trainer Please; 4-Brutto

Forecast: Brutto just missed at 50 cents on the dollar when beaten a neck in a similar maiden special weight sprint last month so he may be a tad hard to trust, but an awkward start probably cost him the win so the son of Nyquist surely will be a short price to make amends today. Trainer Please, third when beaten more than four lengths in the same race Brutto exits, makes his second career start and has every right to produce a forward move and would seem the one to fear most. Preference on top goes to Brutto in a race that might be best left alone.

RACE 5: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Bender; 6-Subconscious; 10-Lincoln Hawk

Forecast: Lincoln Hawk made a favorable impression when rallying from far back to finish second beaten a neck in his U.S. debut sprinting on grass last month and today the Irish-bred colt stretches out to what should be a more favorable trip. The R. Baltas barn has solid stats with the sprint-to-route angle and following a recent sharp the European import looks ready to earn his diploma. Subconscious improved considerably in his second career outing when finishing an excellent runner-up in a nine furlong grass affair here last month. He has since worked well since to indicate another forward move is likely. The shortening in trip to a mile shouldn’t be an issue, and with A. Cedillo staying aboard the R. Mandella-trained son of Tapit is strictly the one to beat. Bender has been well-beaten in both of his starts but today draws the rail, switches to grass, and has looked quite good in the morning in the interim, so at 15-1 on the morning line the son of Curlin should be included somewhere on your ticket.

RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tripoli; 2-Bold Endeavor

Forecast: Bold Endeavor was soundly beaten when runner-up at 4/5 in a 10-furlong main track affair last month, but this is a softer assignment so we’re expecting the son of Bernardini to make amends. First or second in seven of 13 career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the M. Glatt-trained gelding projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip and then have his chance to kick home when called upon. Tripoli makes his first career start on dirt but based on his grass pedigree it’s problematic whether he can transfer his turf form to the main track. He’s worked well dirt, but you don’t always get the same results in the afternoon. Relatively lightly-raced and in good form, the J. Sadler-trained colt is worth tossing in on a ticket or two for protection.

RACE 7: Post: 4:17 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Adare; 3-Uncle Addouma; 8-Southern Horse

Forecast: Let’s go for a long shot in this first-level allowance turf miler for older horses. Uncle Addouma was a visually pleasing winner sprinting over the local lawn two runs back but then was given too much to do when rallying much too late last time out, finding his best stride in the final furlong to wind up seventh but beaten less than four lengths. He’s trained well since that outing, stretches out to a mile, and should be set to produce a career top effort in a field that that on paper doesn’t look all that intimating. He’s 12-1 on the morning line and we suspect he’s better than that. Adare lands the rail while stretching out again after finishing a solid third in the same race our top pick exits. From the rail the son of Medaglia d’Oro is likely to secure an ideal ground-saving trip and should have his chance to produce the last run with the switch to good turf rider J. Bravo. Southern Horse has been given a couple of runs sprinting on grass since being imported from Ireland and is another that seems certain to improve with today’s added distance. He’s faced better overseas than what he’s seeing today and based on his strong Time Form ratings is quite dangerous at his morning line of 15-1. With the switch to top grass jockey U. Rispoli, the Argentine-bred veteran is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

RACE 8: Post: 4:50 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Howbeit; 4-Palace Coup

Forecast: Howbeit is a hard-knocking sprinter with a pair of strong runner-up efforts in two recent outings vs. similar entry-level allowance competition. He had the proper style for this extended sprint trip, and with a clean break from the rail should be able to secure a comfortable, second flight, ground-saving early position. Beaten less than a length last time out while earning a career-top equaling speed figure, the M. Glatt-trained colt seems a fairly solid top pick. Palace Coup has been routing most of his career but had performed well around one turn when given the chance and with this turn back in trip the son of Bernardini could easily return to winning form. The P. D’Amato-trained colt is a strong fit on speed figures and projects to be prominent throughout. Preference on top goes to Howbeit but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 9: Post: 5:23 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Found My Ball; 2-None Above the Law

Forecast: None Above the Law has won three of his last four starts with rising speed figures and appears well-spotted to continue his outstanding recent form in this year’s edition of the Snow Chief S. a race restricted to California-bred 3-year-olds. The P. Miller-trained gelding is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and at this nine furlong trip should be capable of producing the last run. Found My Ball adds blinkers for the first time and from his rail post should be on or near the lead throughout. He’s been a money burner during his six race career, having failed three times as the favorite, but at this longer distance the son of Square Eddie should enjoy soft early fractions and a ground-saving trip. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.

RACE 10: Post: 5:56 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Fi Fi Pharoah; 6-Eddie’s New Dream

Forecast: Eddie’s New Dream, a strong recent runner-up when facing older sprinters in her first start since November, stretches out and returns to 3-year-old only competition in this year’s edition of the Melair S., a race restricted to state-bred fillies. There’s no reason the daughter of Square Eddie won’t enjoy the trip, and a recent bullet workout since raced indicates the B. Cecil-trained sophomore should be on or near the lead throughout. Fi Fi Pharoah has winning form over the local main track around two turns and with a decent amount of pace to compliment her late running style the daughter of American Pharoah should be heard from in the final furlong. U. Rispoli stays aboard and will give her the patient ride she needs. We’ll put Eddie’s New Dream slightly on top but double the race in our rolling exotics.

RACE 11: Post: 6:29 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Ward ‘n Jerry; 5-Pillar Mountain

Forecast: Pillar Mountain offers a price chance as a first-off-the-claim play for R. Hess, Jr. in this year’s San Juan Capistrano S.-G3, a long-time popular classic for older stayers. The winner of his last two outings in Florida, both over a marathon trip, the Irish-bred veteran has a few decent stakes outings to go back to and with just 14 career starts on his resume may still have a bit of improvement in him. He’s worth a shot at 6-1 on the morning line. Ward ‘n Jerry, a thoroughly genuine and consistent gelding, is strong on numbers and a six time winner over the Santa Anita turf course. With regular pilot F. Prat staying aboard, the M. Puype-trained handle the trip and fight hard to the end.