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Sunday, June 20: Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis

by Jeff Siegel

June 20, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here to view Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Burgoo Alley; 4-Beirut Beauty; 6-For Love Not Money

Forecast: Burgoo Alley was extremely well-meant in her U.S. debut last month but was off slowly from the rail and simply had too much to do when rallying to be fifth, beaten less than four lengths. She’s stuck on the rail again today in this six furlong turf sprint for maiden fillies and mares but has returned to train quite well since raced, so if she can avoid trouble (especially at the start) the Irish-bred filly should be capable of earning her diploma. While the main push in our rolling exotic play will go to ‘Alley, we’ll also include on a backup ticket a couple of first timers, Beirut Beauty and For Love Not Money, both of whom have shown enough ability in morning trials to expect a good performance first crack out of the box.

RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Dozo; 5-Paid Informant

Forecast: Paid Informant is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in this restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and will win if she can run back to her highly-rated optional claiming score two races back over this track and distance. The P. Miller-trained filly lacks tactical speed but should return to the winner’s circle under the assumption that she has at least one good one left. Dozo is worth tossing in on a ticket or two as a backup. Away for nearly a year and returning waiver protected, the M. Puype-trained filly has looked quite good in recent workouts to indicate she’s fit and ready, and with only three starts on her resume (with two wins) the daughter of Coil may have further improvement in her.

RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Disappearing Act; 4-On Mars; 5-Beguiled

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass this second level allowance turf affair for fillies and mares. On Mars was victimized by a brutal trip/ride last time out while being forced to race wide throughout while never getting any cover. She switches to J. Bravo, has trained well in the interim, and should bounce back with a major effort today. Beguiled has the blinkers off angle that we like and should be prominent throughout in a race that projects to be slowly run early. She’s a one-paced grinder and will have here best chance if put into the race early by J. J. Hernandez. Disappearing Act is slower on speed figures than the other main contenders but she’s a progressive type and could be a strong threat if her improving pattern continues.

RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Big City Lights

Forecast: Big City Lights ran away and hid in a very impressive debut performance last month, graduating by more than 12 lengths while widening at will in the final furlong. He’s listed as the 2/5 morning line favorite, rendering the race unplayable other than to use the son of Mr. Big as a short priced, no value, rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Heir

Forecast: French-bred Heir finally makes it to the post at age four and shows up in a wide-open maiden $50,000 claiming turf miler that really doesn’t have a whole lot in it. The L. Powell-trained gelding has looked quite good in his morning dirt workouts – he’s been breezing in most of drills while finishing with plenty left - and should be even more comfortable on the lawn based on his European pedigree. He offers a legitimate gamble at 15-1 on the morning line, so let’s take a stand and make this newcomer a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: C
Use: 3-Vanna; 4-My Tigress; 6-Ricotta

Forecast: We’ll use three in this woefully weak bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and hope that’s enough to survive and advance. Vanna has been away since last August and returns for new trainer J. Mullins with a work tab that indicates she may be a tad better this time around. My Tigress is slow on speed figures, but everything else in the field is, too, and she’s hit the board in all four career starts so she’s sure to get plenty of play. Ricotta is a first-timer from the R. Bell barn with an okay (for this level) work tab. She clearly won’t have to be any type of world beater to act with these. Tread lightly here.

RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Tiz Plus; 3-Neptune’s Storm

Forecast: Neptune’s Storm is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this year’s renewal of the American S.-G3 for older turf milers despite having not been out since last September. The good news is a solid series of workouts that should have him fit and ready and an outstanding record (four wins in nine starts) over the Santa Anita turf course. Effective on the front end or from a stalking position and picking up top rider F. Prat, the P. Miller-trained gelding has much in his favor. Tiz Plus has been impressive in the morning of late and makes his first start since being gelded, so improvement is likely. He’s 15-1 on the morning line and probably is better than that, so the son of Tizway is worth tossing in somewhere as a backup or a saver.

RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Laurel Canyon; 2-At The Spa; 5-Royal O’Haigain

Forecast: All three fillies listed above were impressive debut maiden winners and each should step forward with that bit of experience behind them. Rather than split hairs, we’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics while otherwise sitting it out. At The Spa drew off with authority to graduate by seven widening lengths and should run at least as well today. Royal O’Haigain essentially did the same thing in her maiden romp, though she earned a slightly lower speed figure than ‘Spa. Gulfstream Park shipper Laurel Canyon displayed some quality in her victory and has worked quite well since arriving in California and joining the P. Miller barn. She’ll have to avoid trouble from the rail, though.

RACE 9: Post: 5:28 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Brooke; 3-Gidgetta; 7-Stela Star

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Wilshire S.-G3 has a ton of speed signed on so the race flow should promote the chances of the closing types. Brooke was a good third in her U.S. debut in January and the Chilean Oaks winner can be quite dangerous off her South American form in her first outing since making that favorable impression in the Megahertz S.-G3. She picks up U. Rispoli and projects to settle into a comfortable second flight early position and then have every chance from there. Gidgetta is unproven in graded stakes company and around two turns, but her speed figures continue to rise, and she has a late kick that should be complimented by what we expect to be a faster-than-par pace. She picks up M. Gutierrez, who has an outstanding record when riding for the R. Baltas barn. Stela Star, off the track for more than a year, returns for J. Sadler and is another who projects to be doing her best work from the quarter pole home. A group-3 stakes winner in Ireland as 2-year-old and stakes placed in both of her U.S. starts last year, the lightly-raced 4-year-old will be dangerous if she returns as well as she left.

RACE 10: Post: 6:02 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Sea Dreamer; 4-Zydeco Mama

Forecast: Morning line (8/5) favorite Just Distorted in the logical top pick and one to beat but she’s been scratched since raced and hasn’t been out since early February. That’s not the pattern we’re willing to accept at a short price. Instead, let’s go with the newcomer Sea Dreamer, a daughter of Into Mischief with a good series of workouts for S. Callaghan. She’s done everything asked of her in the morning without showing any sizzling workouts and appears to be a filly with some quality. With F. Prat aboard, she’s worth a play at or near her morning line of 5/2. Zydeco Mama has the benefit of a prior win and could produce a significant forward move after finishing a distant second to the talented Illumination in her debut earlier this month for the Desormeaux brothers. The daughter of Hard Spun should be prominent throughout and have her chance.

RACE 11: Post: 6:37 PT Grade: B-
Use: 7-Gypsy Blu; 8-Smiling Annie; 12-After Midnight

Forecast: We’ll spread the nightcap, a first-level allowance grass sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. Gypsy Blue, a first-off-the-claim play for P. Miller (26% with a strong ROI with this angle), removes blinkers, retains F. Prat, and has finished first or second in seven of 12 career starts over the Santa Anita turf course. It’s been quite a spell since she’s won but she gets ideal conditions today and should have no excuses. Smiling Annie also removes blinkers (love that angle) and may have needed the outing last month when second over this course in her first start since August. With a forward move today, she’ll be right there. After Midnight must leave from the 12-hole in her first race since October but the works look good and the daughter of Gervinho gets Lasix for her sophomore debut. At 15-1 on the morning line, she’s worth using in your exotics.