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Jeff Siegel: Saratoga Picks & Analysis | Thursday, July 22

by Jeff Siegel

July 22, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: Today’s first race is a steeplechase. We will pass the race.

RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B
Use: 6-Pregame; 7-Recidivist

Forecast: Recidivist makes a barn switch to K. Breen, shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time, and should be capable of dominating this field gate to wire from a cozy outside post. This will be just his third career start, so there’s plenty of room for improvement, though not much will be needed against this modest band. Pregame also has the first-time-for-a-tag angle, and while the majority of his seven career starts have been on grass or around two turns, the More Than Ready colt does have a race (his debut) to go back to that makes him reasonable dangerous in this league at this distance. Look for him to be running on late.

RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B+
Single: 7-Sirenic

Forecast: Sirenic drops sharply in class after earning a pair of minor checks at Parx in the first-level allowance ranks and this $12,500 company appears well within her capabilities with anything close to her best race. The L. Rice-trained filly picks up I. Ortiz, Jr., and in a field without much early speed projects to be in front early, midway, and probably late, as well. Let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Dancing Kiki; 5-Tenderness

Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance using just two in this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimer for fillies and mares over seven furlongs. If you field the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Dancing Kiki turns back in trip, switches to dirt, and drops to her lowest level ever while trying to regain her winning form. Against this group, she just might be able to it. Arguably most effective around one turn and with enough tactical speed to secure a good pace-prompting trip in a race that projects to have soft splits, the daughter of Blame retains “win rider” J. Lezcano and shouldn’t have any excuses. Tenderness, not particularly fast on speed figures but in good form and making her first start off a $20,000 claim by W. Potts (strong stats with this angle), has the proper stalking style for this distance and really won’t have to improve much to step up in class and win. It should be noted, though, that Lezcano, who had been riding her, opts for Dancing Kiki.

RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Expand the Map; 10-Pizza Bianca

Forecast: Selections are made for turf only. Trainer C. Brown has two entered in this middle distance inner turf affair for maiden juvenile fillies, the better of which appears to be Expand the Map, a Tattersalls yearling purchase for approximately $313,000 that has done pretty much what’s been asked of her leading up to today’s debut. A bullet gate work (:48 2/5, fastest of 32) last month catches the eye along with several other steady drills that should have her plenty fit. Pizza Bianca is a homebred first-timer from the C. Clement barn (22% with a massive ROI with debut runners) that is worth including on your ticket as well. She looks like a live item with J. Rosario aboard, though the steady but unspectacular series of workouts won’t likely attract an overflow of wagering dollars. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Expand the Map.

RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade:
Use: 3-Derrynane; 6-Enjoy Summer

Forecast: Selections are made for turf only. Here’s a field of New York-bred juvenile fillies sprinting five and one-half furlongs on grass in which those that have raced aren’t impressive, so we’ll sink or swim with a pair of first-timers from top outfits. Derrynane, a Quality Road filly, goes for the C. Clement/J. Rosario team and appears to have some talent, as indicated by a recent half mile gate work in :47 4/5 over the local main track, the second fastest of 31 for the distance (and this from a stable that rarely asks its maidens for speed in the morning). The tab, though relatively light, should have her fit enough for this abbreviated trip, so we’ll put her on top. Enjoy Summer certainly is bred for turf (Kitten’s Joy) and has shown enough in the a.m. to indicate at least some ability for J. Terranova, a trainer that has solid stats with the first-time starter angle.

RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: C+
Use: 6-Quantitativebreezin; 9-Traffic Lane; 10-Chloe Rose

Forecast: A full field of restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming fillies and mares competes at six furlongs in a race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Very slight top billing goes to Chloe Rose, drawn comfortably outside in her second start since being claimed for $30,000 but dropping in such a manner that brings her current condition into question. If she shows up with her best stuff, the daughter of Twirling Candy will have enough speed to enjoy a good pace stalking trip and then go on with it when asked, but when it comes to the modest claiming ranks, current condition is what’s most important. Two easy recent breezes since raced can be taken as a good sign, or at least we hope so. Traffic Lane, freshened since mid-May and moving from the T. Pletcher barn to that of R. Rodriguez, has sprinted only once in seven career starts but today adds blinkers for the first time while nosediving in class and picking up I. Ortiz, Jr., so the signals are mixed. Still, we have to use her. Quantitativebreezin broke her maiden for $40,000 in the mud two races back and earned an okay number, one that makes her a threat if she can repeat that effort over a fast strip. The B. Cox barn runs them where they belong, and against this group the daughter of Central Banker should be pressing the pace throughout.

RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-Lovely Luck; 6-Mia Martina

Forecast: Selections are made for turf only. Lovely Luck exits a series of graded stakes races and makes her first start since January, so she’ll certainly enjoy this drop to the second level allowance ranks while not having any issue with the mini-marathon trip. As to her fitness, it’s hard to gauge as she has no history of running well fresh, her trainer has soft numbers with layoff runners, and the work tab doesn’t really inspire. At least she’s being ridden by J. Ortiz, who has been aboard in both of her wins. Mia Martina has the benefit of recent racing and returns from Delaware Park while being reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. She’s never run this far, but the daughter of Not This Time has a steady, grinding style that should allow her to see out the trip. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight edge on top to Lovely Luck.

RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Single: 3-Ice Princess

Forecast: At first glance this race looks a bit treacherous due to a projected pace scenario that may compromise several of the contenders, who prefer to do their best work on the lead. They all can’t have it, and the one that earns it may have to go too fast too early. So, let’s zero in on a closer in this first-level allowance nine furlong main track event for fillies and mares. Ice Princess certainly is capable of producing a good late kick and should have every chance if given the patient ride she requires from I. Ortiz, Jr. Second when beaten a neck in the Fleet Indian S. over this track and distance last year, the daughter of Palace Malice has numbers that fit and an easy breeze over the local dirt surface that should have her ready for a major effort. First or second in seven of 11 starts, the D. Gargan-trained filly is worth a bit of gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Social Whirl; 7-Dorothy’s the Boss; 12-Stella Mars

Forecast: Selections are made for turf only. The nightcap is a messy maiden claiming turf sprint for New York-bred $40,000 fillies and mares that drew a full field. Anything goes. Stella Mars may have found her niche as a turf sprinter, having finished a good second with a career top numbers in a similar affair at Belmont Park last month (her first off a long layoff). If the daughter of Point of Entry can turn in two alike, she’ll probably beat this field. Dorothy’s the Boss is slower on speed figures than our top pick but shows up in a seller for the first time while also making her debut on grass, so improvement certainly is possible. She appears to be the most dangerous of the closing types. Social Whirl, a close fourth in the same race that Stella Mars just finished second in, has dangerous early speed and could stick better at this slightly shorter trip. The daughter of Freud hasn’t been too generous under pressure but if she can shake loose early she may keep going.