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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Jackpot High-5 Analysis - Mandatory Payout | Saturday, July 24

by Al Cimaglia

July 24, 2021

Tonight, Hawthorne Racecourse will have a mandatory payout in the Jackpot High 5 that rolls in Race 11. The carryover is $189,900 and the estimated pool is $500,000. Hopefully my comments will help you build a ticket to fit your budget in a race without a true standout.

Comments below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

1-Daybreak Girl (5-1)-This mare had the stars lined up to get the 1st win of the year last week and is now 0-20. Couldn't win off a suck around trip from the same post at a lower class. Not a win candidate but with an advantageous trip might hit the bottom of the ticket if everything fell into place.

2-Ashlees's Joy (9/2)-Drops after having post 10 in last and was jammed up down the stretch but it didn't cost her a picture. This is Todd Warren's choice over #7 and probably has the best chance of winning versus this crew. Should be a player but could be over bet and does like to finish 2nd rather than win. Has 5 wins and 18 second place finishes at Haw.

3-Beach Passage (9-1)-Arrived from Hoosier and did well for 3 races back in May and recent form has been dull. Leonard had been steering but now drives for his dad's barn and will be on #6. Wilfong is between the pipes and will need to work a good trip. Current form suggests a bottom of the ticket possibility only, unless this mare wakes-up tonight.

4-Admit (15-1)-This mare is 1 for the last 34 and was still Ridge Warren's choice over #1. This gal does drop a notch but couldn't win at this level in May. This is a one-move type and looks like a tail end of the ticket possibility at best.

5-Double Parked (30-1)-Only win came at the basement class on 1st the start on Lasix back on 6-5. Since then has struggled versus better and came 5th at this class last week. That start was with Bender and now Steward steers, so not a positive driver change. Should be at about 30-1 or more, and finishing 5th looks like the ceiling.

6-Dune Dame (9/2)-This is a $6k claimer who comes close but couldn't win at that class and steps-up. This isn't a field of All-Stars and Team Leonard has won at a 20% clip over the last 30 days. Might be on the ticket, doesn't look like a win possibility and could be over bet.

7-Ideal Toy (15-1)-Barn is 0-8, Jordan Patton is a rookie driver and he takes over tonight and there is more to not like. Has faced better in Ohio and drops here but hasn't come close in all 3 local starts. Would need a form reversal and some luck to hit the ticket.

8-Tropical Tracey (12-1)-Went off at 7/2 at this class last week and finished a close-up 3rd. But now goes from post 2 to post 8 and won't be able to get the top and go to the half in 58.1. Should be a better price and looks like one of many that could hit a bottom slot but would need to get a good early seat.

9-EZpay (30-1)-Comes off 2 straight scratches and the last start was on 7-2. Hasn't won in the last 2 years (0-13) and is only 2-21 at the track. Bender stays loyal to the Leu barn but that stable is 0-16 over the last 365 days. Can't bank on being ready for a big try especially from this post.

10-Barley Nation (30-1)-This will be the 2nd start since shipping in from Scioto and has hit the board in 8 of 11 in Stickney. Last week's effort at this same class resulted in a 3rd place check. From the inside this mare could make some real noise. Not sure how she can be put in play from post 10 to win but this is a price shot that can be used in a few slots on the ticket.

11-Charlotte Royal N (7/2)-Did cash a check versus Open company but was in too deep with that kind. Got claimed for $10k and didn't look good in the 1st start for the Roberts barn on 6-17. This mare has some speed but starting in the 2nd tier may have sealed her fate. Not sure she could win without being up close or leading turning for home and offers no value if bet down.

12-Roaring Home (30-1)-Hasn't won in 21 tries at Haw and would need to get sucked around to hit the bottom of the ticket. Would needs to get a fortunate trip to be heard from and it won't be easy.

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