Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Don’t bet a first-time starter from the rail.

Background:

A common handicappers’ stance is to avoid rail-drawn first-time starters. The theory is that they are forced to break with the pack and be hard-used early, otherwise they will be shuffled back as the field comes down up on them. Inexperienced horses aren’t expected to overcome adversity in their opening act.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all first-time starters over the past 5 years (Aug. 1, 2016-present). The study included how they fared from the rail draw at sprint distances of 6 furlongs or less as well as how they fared in comparison to other winning posts. The study also looked at rail runners by field size. And, I also looked at debut 2-year-olds vs. debut runners of all ages.



Post 1 first-time starters win 10.4% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 2 first-time starters win 10.4% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 3 first-time starters win 10.9% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 4 first-time starters win 10.9% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 5 first-time starters win 10.8% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 6 first-time starters win 9.8% with a $0.69 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 7 first-time starters win 10.1% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 8 first-time starters win 8.7% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 9 first-time starters win 8.4% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 10 first-time starters win 8.0% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 11 first-time starters win 6.9% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 12 first-time starters win 5.4% with a $0.46 ROI for every $1 bet.



Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 6 or less win 14.5% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 7-9 win 10.5% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 10-12 win 8.0% with a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.



Post 1 first-time starters as 2-year-olds win 11.7% with a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters as 3-year-olds win 9.1% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters as 4-year-olds win 8.4% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings:
Posts 3-4-5 score at the highest rates among first-time starters in sprint races, with the inside two posts next-best. There’s a considerable drop off in win percentage from post 8 and beyond. No doubt larger field sizes have an impact in lowering the win rate for the rail. As for the performance of rail-drawn rookies by age, the 2-year-olds by far had the best win rate and ROI.

Bottom line:

While the rail may not be the ideal spot for a first-time starter, the statistics show it’s not nearly the automatic toss some handicappers exaggerate. You could make the argument that in the largest field sizes, you had better have the best horse to win from the fence.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which tracks have been best for rookies from the rail? Delaware Park has seen 16.5% winners in this situation, best nationally. Also see which jockeys negotiate it best (hint: Carol Cedeno and Emisael Jaramillo have excelled).